Research On Decision-making Optimization Of Earthquake Disasters In Grassroots Government Based On Bayesian Network Theory

Emergency contingency decision-making faces three problems that can not be ignored: First,the urgency of decision-making time.Emergency decision-makers need to do a good job in a certain period of time to collect,analyze,judge,develop a feasible disposal plan and make decisions.Second,the situation is changing.Emergencies are often accompanied by complex and volatile scenarios,which require decision makers to constantly gather information about emergencies and correct disposal options.Third,the level of decision makers uneven.In the face of emergencies,the key factors that can play a key factor are often grassroots policymakers.However,most of the grassroots policymakers do not have the knowledge and ability to deal with emergencies,and can not correctly predict the trend of emergencies.It may affect the decision-making effect,or even choose the wrong program,resulting in irreversible consequences.This study first is through the system to understand the development process of emergency management,from which to explore the emergency management disciplines and can not fit well with China's basic national conditions,which is difficult to guide our emergency management in response to unexpected events.Based on the current situation and existing problems of emergency management in China,the decision theory,Scenario theory and dynamic Bayesian theory are constructed and the research model is constructed.The decision-making mechanism and decision-making procedure of emergency decision-maker are given,with the "4.20" Lu shan earthquake information and data analyzes and corrects the decision-making mechanism and the procedure and the model,and draws the conclusion that the Bayesian theory applies to the decision-making problem of the earthquake disaster,and then discusses and analyzes the decision-making problem of the grassroots government in combination with the scenario analysis theory,Provide decision-making principles and process system to help grass-roots decision-makers to make optimal decision-making program.