The Impact Of Provincial Capital Agglomeration On Provincial Economic Growth

The population concentration of a capital city has both positive and negative implications for economic growth of the province.On one hand,population concentration of city provides conditions for professional labor agglomeration,economics of scale about intermediate production and local technology spillover.Capital cities at the core of urban group is engine of provincial economic growth,and important force in China’s economic growth,too.The other hand,urban overpopulation leads to environmental pollution,traffic congestion,crime and other problems,"big urban disease" is bothering the ordinary citizens and city managers.In order to explore if the population concentration of a capital city has reached the optimal level,which promotes a province’s economic growth best,this paper analyzed how the population concentration of a capital city affects its province’s economy development.Using the panel data of 26 provinces(and municipalities)from 1997 to 2014,the empirical results show that:There is a significant relationship of inverted "U" type between population concentration of a capital city and provincial economic growth in china.In the initial stages of population growth of a provincial capital,increasing in concentration of the capital urban population has a significant role to provincial economic growth,and 13.89%is the optimal level,which drives economic growth tremendously,if concentration would rise even further,its inhibitory effect on provincial economic growth will be shown gradually.As the data in 2014 showed,the population concentration of a capital city had a obvious differences in distribution.There are nine capital cities,such as Changchun(Jilin),Harbin(Heilongjiang),Wuhan(Hubei),Haikou(Hainan),Guiyang(Guizhou),Xian(Shaanxi),Kunming(Yunnan),Xining(Qinghai),Urumqi(Xinjiang),which urban population concentration serious exceed optimal value,producing larger of negative effect.other cities,such as Shijiazhuang(Hebei),Hohhot(Inner Mongolia),Nanjing(Jiangsu),Hefei(Anhui),Fuzhou(Fujian province),Jinan(Shandong),Guangzhou(Guangdong),and Nanning(Guangxi),which population concentration is close to the optimal size of the capital city.Author selected six capital cities,including Guangzhou,and Jinan,and Changchun,and Wuhan,and Xian,and Chengdu,to analysis the relationship between their population concentration of capital cities and their economic radiations to other city in the same province.The result is that the population concentration of a capital city has too high,which leaded to their economic radiation to other cities not balanced,and to cities on edge weaker.But balanced of city system helps capital city keep the population concentration in moderate scale;further analysis founding that the moderate population concentration of capital city has an city which is comparable in economic and social development levels,named sub-center city.Thus,the provinces(autonomous regions)combining their actual conditions,actively cultivate Sub-center City,which would divert population of capital cities and drive provincial economic growth by two wheels,optimize the layout of the urban system.Finally,anther give some macro-policy Recommendations about cultivating Sub-center City.