An Empirical Analysis Of India's Trade Status And Growth Potential Under The RCEP Framework

Since 2016 world economic development direction changed with the things happened to EU and USA.At the moment when British was independent and out of EU and whem USA announced will not attent the TPP.Now in the world,everyone is confusing about whether trade liberalization still the first choice for developming.All the signs show that anti-globalizationism and trade protectionism are rising.Developed countries once have developed by the environment of free trade,but now do not want to developing countries have the same condition to improve.As one of developing countries,India developed quickly in recent years.Though it GDP become larger and larger,but the trade part still be less in GDP,if India enlarging their trade,it can develop more quickly.So when ASEAN suggested to set up RCEP,India want to be a mumber.Writer want to know what effect in trade will India get when it be the number of RCEP.That is the reason why writer focus on this issue.Based on those background,writer research this issue in five parts.first part is writing about the RCEP generation and the development process.Second part is marjor in the current trade situation between India and RCEP members,mainly including India's trade status in the existing RCEP region,,India and RCEP member countries import and export trade structure and trade competitiveness and complementarity analysis.Third part,I use GTAP to simulate after RCEP built,which will have an impact on India's trade.And finally find the RCEP framework for the growth of India's trade prospects,and make substantive recommendations.The conclusion of this paper is that RCEP can bring some manufacturing opportunities to India,but it also puts India's manufacturing industry under pressure.It can promote India and region's members economic relation.But India must be in the RCEP after the establishment of the trade deficit to further expand in advance to prepare for prevention.Based on the RCEP FTA,in order to promote the further expansion of India's trade,this paper proposes three options for expanding trade in India,such as expanding the degree of openness,strengthening foreign investment and deepening international cooperation.According to India's current status of trade development and national development experience.First,the government should play a leading role.Second,under the existing trade location,India should weaken its trade with South Asia,stabilize its trade ties with Southeast Asia,and explore cooperation with the East Asian countries.In addition,adjust the industrial structure.