Study Of Trade Potential Between China And India,Bangladesh And Myanmar

In the context of the initiative of the ‘New Silk Road Economic Belt' and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road',China has proposed the ‘One Belt,One Road' initiative and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor Initiative,which will closely link and deepen China and India.Trade between the three countries of Bangladesh and Myanmar.At present,China,India,Bangladesh,and Myanmar are all in a critical period of continuously developing the economy,actively eliminating poverty,and improving people's living standards.They face the heavy responsibility of upgrading and transforming the domestic economic structure.In India,Bangladesh and Myanmar,the phenomenon of backward infrastructure,underdeveloped transportation and low level of economic development is widespread,which is very challenging for sub-regional cooperation on the borders of poor countries.China and India cover one-third of the world's population.Bangladesh and Myanmar are the most backward countries in the world.Therefore,exploring the trade development potential between China and India,Bangladesh and Myanmar is important for developing large populations and difficult economies.significance.At the same time,the economic and trade relations between China and India,the two major developing countries,will be closer.China will drive trade development,investment cooperation and domestic infrastructure construction in Bangladesh and Myanmar,bringing unprecedented opportunities for development.On the other hand,excavating the trade potential between China and Bangladesh,India and Myanmar,and promoting the construction of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor is in line with the strategic layout of China's opening to the southwest in the context of the“Belt and Road” and the continuation of China and neighboring countries for thousands of years.Interconnection and friendly cooperation have far-reaching implications.China's trade cooperation with India,Bangladesh and Myanmar will radiate three major economic sectors in Southeast Asia,South Asia and East Asia,andpromote the joint development of its trade;it will have a profound impact on maintaining security and stability in marginal areas and enhancing the economic status of developing countries in the world.This paper analyzes the trade potential between China and India,Bangladesh and Myanmar,and compares comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory,product life cycle theory and trade gravity model as the theoretical support for studying trade potential.The data from 2003 to 2017 were selected to analyze the development of China's import and export trade with India,Myanmar and Bangladesh.The export similarity index and the symmetrical display comparative advantage index were used to analyze the trade competition between China and India,Bangladesh and Myanmar.Sexuality and complementarity,and empirical analysis of the trade potential between China and Bangladesh,India and Myanmar through the establishment of a trade gravity model.Finally,based on the analysis and argumentation of the previous article,the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting trade between China and India,Bangladesh and Myanmar are drawn.According to the analysis and analysis of this paper,firstly,in the past 15 years,except for the impact of the economic crisis in a few years,the trade volume has declined,and the trade volume between China,India,China,Bangladesh and China has shown an increasing trend.Second,comparing the export similarity index between China,India,China and Bangladesh,from 2007 to 2017,the trade products between China and India and Bangladesh are in a competitive relationship.The export products of China and Myanmar are relatively large complementarity.According to the symmetry display comparative advantage index: China's various trade commodities and the trade goods of India,Myanmar and Bangladesh all have certain complementarities.Fourth,by establishing a trade gravity model for regression analysis,it can be seen that for every 1% increase in China's GDP,the bilateral trade volume will increase by 1.48%,for every 10% increase in GDP of India,Bangladesh,and Myanmar,the trade volume will increase by 1.23%.1% of the trade volume decreased by 0.29%,the linear distance between China,India,China,Bangladesh,China and Myanmar increased by an average of 1%,and the trade volume between China,India,China,Bangladesh and China decreased by 0.20% on average.China and India bordered on the border will increase its trade volume by1.42%,if India,Bangladesh,and Myanmar belong to the SCO,the trade volume will increase by 1.91%.Fourth,set the trade potential value to the true value/fit value.The ratio of the real trade amount(T)to the fitted value(T')estimated by the trade gravity model is greater than 1.15,which is called ‘trade overtype'.The ratio between the two is between 0.85 and 1.15,which is called ‘trade moderate'.The ratio between the two is less than 0.85,which is called ‘trade shortage'.Finally,according to the analysis and argumentation mentioned above,the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting trade between China and India,Myanmar and Bangladesh: the four countries should strengthen economic and trade cooperation in the context of the“Belt and Road” and reduce the current situation of trade imbalance;mutual political trust should be enhanced.Promote mutual benefit and win-win;should fully apply the product life cycle theory,promote the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries to a deeper level,use the industrial gap to promote industrial transfer;develop key industries and promote the trade economy and continuously promote the construction of the transportation infrastructure of the BCIM Economic Corridor,Explore the trade potential between China and India,Bangladesh and Myanmar.In short,the study of China's trade potential with India,Bangladesh,and Myanmar is to better promote the construction of the BCIM economic corridor,create a demographic dividend,and help the world's most backward economy.Therefore,China,India,Bangladesh and Myanmar should work together to seize the development opportunities of the ‘Belt and Road' to promote the economy and improve the economic status of developing countries in the world.