The Agricultural Products' Trade Potential Research Of China And The Five Central-Asian Countries

In this paper,the study found that the trade scale of agricultural products between China and the five central Asian countries grow steadily.The structure of bilateral agricultural commodities is concentrated,and China are always in deficit on agricultural trade.Then,through the bilateral agricultural revealed comparative advantage index,trade complementarity index,the result shows that the agricultural products between China and the five central Asian countries have great complementarity,and they do not have direct competition in the International market.By using extended gravity model,we found that the GDP,trade openness,distance and population will affect the agriculture trade between China and the five central Asian countries.After measure the trade potential,the result shows that China and the five central Asian countries have large potential in agricultural trade.First,the scale of agricultural trade between China and the five central Asian countries has large potential.The potential between China and Kazakhstan,Tajikistan separately is huge,and their agricultural trade have broad development space;the agricultural trade potential between China and Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan are not fully developed,so their trade still has some potential to develop;and the potential of agricultural trade between China and Kyrgyzstan is small,they should look for some new trade growth points to develop their trade.Secondly,as for the main agricultural products classification,the trade also have big potential,and the trade potential are different from country to country.The trade potential of category 0 products shows,the potential of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with China are great;and the trade potential between China and Kazakhstan has not been fully developed;the Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan trade potential within China are small.The trade potential of category 2 products shows,there are great trade potential between China and Kazakhstan,Tajikistan;the trade potential between China and Kyrgyzstan is not fully used;the Uzbekistan andTurkmenistan trade potential with china are small.Therefore,in order to expand bilateral agricultural trade between China and the five central Asian countries,and make full use of the bilateral agricultural trade potential,China should take advantage of their comparative advantage on agriculture products to developing agriculture trade;improve the infrastructure construction to reduce the cost of the agriculture trade;esttablish free trade area to reduce the barriers of bilateral agricultural products trade;use the existing cooperation organization to strengthen the cooperation of bilateral agricultural products trade;the government should also strengthen the communication and cooperation to facilitating the agricultural trade.