The Main Agricultural Products’ Trade Potential Research Of China And The Five Central Asiancountries Under The Background Of One Belt And One Road

On September and October, 2013, the state president called Jinping Xi put forward the strategic plan of the co-constrction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st –Century Maritime Silk Road respectively. Now the two important strategic plan is called One Belt and One Road for short and has been written to the decision by 3rd Session of 18 th Party’s Congress. Central Asian economic zone is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. The five Central Asian countries are not only vital to our country lead to the western countries, but they are all about the important cooperation partner of our country’s implementing the western development strategy. Under the backround of One Belt and One Road, the economic and trade cooperation of China and the five Central Asian countries will continue deepening, and the scale of bilateral agricultural products trade will have a huge leap.At first, this article expounded the meaning of the agricultural products trade between China and the five Central Asian countries from the current situation of the bilateral agricultural products trade between China and the five Central Asian countries. Secondly, this article expounded the realistic basis of the bilateral agricultural products trade through the analysis of competitive and complementary of the bilateral agricultural products trade. Thirdly, this article constructed the gravity model of the agricultural products import and export trade between China and the five Central Asian countries through adding the variables associated with this study to the traditional gravity model, and estimated the potential of the bilateral agricultural products trade by using the extended gravity model. Finally, this article put forward relevant policy suggestions on the bilateral agricultural products trade between China and the five Central Asian countries.This paper argued that the bilateral agricultural products trade scale of China and the five central Asian countries grew rapidly and large complementarities existed in a variety of agricultural products trade through the research. The potential of the bilateral agricultural products trade was huge and needed to be improved, and meanwhile agricultural products trade between China and Central Asian countries had different potential space.