Demographic Transition, Technological Progress And Changes In Agricultural Production Organizations

The evolution and growth of agriculture organizations affect agriculture quality and modernization process. With the development of industrialization, urbanization, internationalization, Chinese agriculture is facing significant changes in external environment. Especially in the situation of deepening market and increasingly interconnection between agriculture and non-agricultural market, agricultural production reflects prominent contradiction between small farmers and big market. Family-run small-scale forms of agricultural organization become more and more unsuited to the needs of agricultural modernization and market, so changing agricultural production methods and improving the degree of agricultural organization is imminent.Some foreign researchers analyzed the changes of agricultural production organization from the perspective of institutional economics. They considered that the evolution of organization had its own internal logic and it was a necessary requirement to adapt to environmental changes, maintaining economic efficiency and competitiveness. Another part of researchers tried to explain from the aspect of the risk aversion and professional scale production. Some researchers analyzed the relationship between human capital and technological progress & technological progress and production organizations. Domestic researchers mainly explained from the view of the institutional changes, transaction costs, and economies of scale. Few researchers analyzed the changes of production organization from the aspect of demographic transition and technological progress.Unlike most of the present research papers, this paper has constructed demographic transition index to explain the evolution of agriculture organizations and discovered that firstly, as the social economy develops, the accumulation of rural human capital promotes the technological progress which improves agriculture productivity and transform the mode of agricultural production. Secondly, the transition of population production preference improves the rural labor's human capital which is conducive to form a team of modern farmers with high professional skills and human capital. Furthermore, along with the accumulation of rural physical capital, progress of agriculture technology and free circulation of land, organization of agricultural production will be changed in the form of enterprise. Thirdly, demographic transition encourages agriculture labor transfer to non-agriculture sector which makes the agriculture population decrease and agriculture production scale expand. More abundant capital supply and increasing labor costs make it possible for mechanical substituting labor, then large-scale agricultural production and enterprise management will gradually be achieved. Last, the demographic transition process accompanies by a decline in fertility which reduces the number of rural labor. Because of this progress, the capital stock per labor improves which is also beneficial to transform traditional agricultural production organizations.This paper includes six parts. In the first part, the author puts forward research problem of agricultural production organizations, theoretical and practical significance, then explains the concept of demographic transition, technological progress. Domestic and foreign scholars' classic theories about the research problem are summarized in the second part. The innovation of this paper also includes in this part. The next part proposes agricultural enterprise is the future direction of Chinese agricultural production organization. Firstly, this part outlines the plight of small-scale peasant household organization and then finds out effective ways to enhance the level of agricultural production organization is to develop agriculture enterprises. Part ? analyzes the changes of agricultural production organization by using the knowledge of demographic transition and technological progress, and then discuss its influencing mechanism of agricultural enterprises. Part ? models multiple linear regression and VAR to prove findings which is proposed in Part ?, then uses eviews for data processing and model regression. Quantitative analysis results are consistent with the theoretical research results. Conclusion and policy suggestion are proposed in the final part.The conclusion of this paper is that technological progress and large-scale production is the key factor which influence the level of agricultural production organization. Since demographic transition can promote agricultural technology progress, effective ways to construct agriculture enterprises is to improve the quality of agricultural labor, speed up technological progress and expand agricultural production scale.