The Demographic Transition,Human Capital Heterogeneity And Industry Structure Upgrade In China

Under the global background of population aging, China’s population age structure is undergoing profound changes.Since2001, China’s elderly population (aged65years and above) across7%of the red line, officially entered the aging society. According to the change law of population, the "baby boom "era(nineteen sixties) borned people will enter the aging period around2025, then China will face the climax of the first severe aging. The change of population structure will influence the labor supply in China which means that China will be unable to use very adequate cheap labor. The supply and demand in labor market is in "Lewis turning point", the first demographic dividend from the dependency ratio decreased and the release of gradually disappear. Labour costs are rising fast, which will squeeze the development space of primary products. Structure the second demographic dividend, the characteristics of human capital and industry to upgrade the equilibrium in population transition, sought the two interaction rules, in accordance with the reality demand of Chinese population balanced development and industrial upgrading.Firstly, probes into the internal relationship between population change and adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in theory, found that the population change can have a huge impact on the industrial structure from the supply and demand characteristics of the factors of production. Then use Stata software fixed effect panel data model to estimate the population transformation in28provinces from1982to2011, to make a preliminary study of the inner link between the industrial structure upgrading. Then, spatial correlation is found, the spatial panel model. This requires the introduction of spatial correlation matrix is appropriate, based on spatial adjacency matrix, using the Fisher optimal partitioning clustering method of capital labor ratio of clustering for research object, and then adjust the space matrix, meanwhile, gives the space relationship between the undirected graph to reflects patial interaction relationship. Spatial panel model to test results show that the Doberman space model is the best model.Empirical results showed,children’s dependency ratio directly affects the upgrading of industrial structure and the adjustment of the spatial spillover effect, the total effect is negative, reflecting the local effect on raising children in local area and other area industrial structure is negative. The youth dependency ratio is the burden of industrial structure. The elderly dependency directly influence the change of industrial structure alignment is significantly positive, indicates that the local district elderly dependency has significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure than the rise. The comprehensive effect is significantly positive, shows that the elderly dependency ratio to improve the overall upgrading of the industrial structure promotion effect is obvious, it is also the two demographic dividend empirical validation. The direct effect of the human capital Gini coefficient to characterize the heterogeneity of human capital to the industrial structure is significantly negative, indicates that the local human capital Gini coefficient has a negative effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, optimize the structure of human capital is of strategic significance level. Human capital, labor force participation rate estimation results is also very significant.Finally, on the basis of the summarization, grasp the inherent laws of upgrade at present population in China and the industrial structure, found the problem, propose adjusting family planning policy, make appropriate adjustments to the current family planning policy;strengthen the education innovation and reform, optimizing the structure of human capital, do a good job in the "bridge" role of secondary education foundation, and expand the scale of higher education; strengthening the provincial cooperation, guide the rational flow of labor provinces; ensure the security, to change the status of old-age security system is not balanced; changing employment policy, improve the aging population, the participation rate, to contain the current labor force participation rate decline.