Research On PPP Project Operational Risk Of Rail Transit Based On Social Network Analysis

Our city continues to expand the scale of public traffic demand of growth,city rail transit construction has become the first choice of local government investment.In order to alleviate the financial pressure,local governments push PPP financing mode for rail transportation projects.However,the PPP project cycle is long,the participants is complex at risk,the pattern very little for successful cases in recent years in our country.It is necessary to research on the risk of PPP model,in order to improve the probability of success of the project.In this article,through analysis of the PPP mode research on both at home and abroad,based on the perspective of risk "relationship",studying the social investors in rail transit the risks of PPP project operation phase.By comparing the commonly used risk identification methods advantages and disadvantages of empirical data method,interview method and Delphi method to identify the final risk list,which included 7 primary risks and 15 secondary risk factors.Based on the final risk list,the Delphi method is used to judge the relationship between the risks and the social network analysis method is used to construct the risk network model.Combined with the example of Y-line project of W city subway,using the software of Ucinet6.0,Netdraw and Matlab to analyze the risk factors faced by the social investors in the operation phase of the project instance,the key risk elements in the risk network are "policy change risk" for F1,F3" Local government coordination and support risks "and F15" unreasonable risk of fare adjustment mechanism ",which is basically consistent with the risk factors of key control in the operation of project examples,proves that this research method can be applied to actual Project risk management.At last,risk mitigation measures are removed from the risk network,and risk mitigation measures are put forward for the key risk factors.In this paper,the relationship between the risk factors of risk in the network from the perspective of risk factors of social investors face in the PPP rail transit project operation stage,to make up for the lack of traditional risk research,provides a new perspective for the future research on the risk of PPP project.