The Construction And Empirical Analysis Of Input-output Cross Model In Fujian Province

The Blue Book about "the Twelfth Five Year Plan" mid Chinese provincial economic comprehensive competitiveness report shows that the comprehensive competitiveness of Fujian provincial economic ranked ninth in the country,among them,the sustainable development of competitive ranking first in the country.As Fujian FTA is approved in December 2014,the core area of the Maritime Silk Road will provide new opportunities for Fujian.While Fujian Province will assume responsibility of overall deepening of reform and opening up,and promoting common development of cross-strait economic.However,with the rapid growth of economy,the structural imbalance contradictions in Fujian province have become increasingly prominent,mainly in the imbalance between final demand structure and value-added structure,which may limit the coordinated and sustainable development of the national economy.However,the input-output technology is the effective methods to study the conducting relations of final demand and value-added.Currently,the research on the industrial structure of Fujian province mostly focuses on long-term movements in the industrial structure,while seldom studying the structure of the industry in Fujian Province on the use of input-output technology.The existing research about the structure of the industry in Fujian Province using input-output method is mainly from the rows and columns of the input-output model,which studies the change of industrial structure,the relationship between the industrial structure and other industries as well as the upgrading of the industrial structure.While it seldom takes advantage of the interaction between rows and columns of the input-output model,to carry on a comprehensive input-output research about the industry structure in Fujian province from the perspective of the conducting relations between final demand and value-added.And the applications of the input-output tables are just based on provincial complied cash input-output tables,due to the impact of price fluctuations,the data is incomparable,therefore,this paper studies the final demand pull effects and initial investment push effects by establishing three annual comparable price input-output tables and building input-output cross model in Fujian province.The paper uses input-output techniques to derive the input-output cross-model in order to explain the conducting relations between the final demand and value-added.According to the existing input-output sequence table,we establish the comparable input-output tables of 2002,2007 and 2012 year in Fujian Province,on basis of which we build the input-output cross model,and carry on an empirical study of industrial structure in Fujian province from the perspective of final demand and the initial investment,which contains a dynamic comparative analysis of final demand pull effects and initial investment push effects.It shows some problems in the economy development in Fujian province:the pulling power of the demand on economy is inadequate,aggravating structural imbalance;the pulling power of net exports on the tertiary industry is inadequate;the promoting effects of final demand on technical progress is not obvious;the export product is low-tech,etc.It puts forward to expanding consumer demand,taking the advantage of the coastal export service trade,stimulating effective technological needs,optimizing export structure and promoting reasonable industrial structure adjustment.