Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In China

Since the 19th century France took the lead in the aging population,the western developed countries have entered ranks of the aging of the population.The proportion of the population aged over 65 in our country has exceeded 7%since entering the 21st century,which announced that our country has entered the aging of the population.After more than a century of population aging process,an undeniable fact is that it will have a huge impact on the social economy.This effect is comprehensive and complicated,from the perspective of economics,the aging of the population will lead the reduce of the amount of labor supply,will have an impact on consumption,savings,human capital,capital formation,and finally through the role of these factors to affect economic growth.This paper is to study how population aging affects the economic growth through these factors,and what impact the economic growth will eventually have.The research methods used in this paper are literature research,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods,empirical analysis and comparative analysis.This paper mainly from five parts to start research.First,combing the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the study history and finding them how to carry out the research on this issue.What research results have been achieved and what needs to be further improved.Then based on the predecessor's shoulder to carry out the next step of research work.The second part mainly describes the current situation and causes of the aging population in our country.From this part,it is found that we have a large number of old people and the growth rate is very fast;the elderly dependency ratio is high;The regional difference is big,and the old age population aging;the aging of the population is mainly caused by the development of national economy,people's living standards to improve fast,the improving medical conditions,long-term one-child policy and population multiplier.The third part mainly discusses the theoretical basis of research,a major review of the national economic population theory,Harro-Domar model,new growth theory and expounds the transmission mechanism of the population aging to the national economy.The transmission mechanism is mainly achieved by population aging influence on labor force supply,savings,consumption and human capital.The fourth part is the empirical research part.Through the grey system theory,we make an empirical study on the labor participation rate in our country and make the forecast analysis.We find that the labor force participation rate will continue to decline in the future,which will affect the supply of labor in China,and will bring negative impact on China's economic growth.By using gray correlation analysis and econometric modeling of population aging on consumption of empirical research,we find that the aging of population in China will reduce consumption,and the consumption structure will make change significantly.The effect of population aging on economic growth rate is empirically analyzed by using the idea of econometrics.After balance test,co integration test,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and then drawing the conclusion of the study:The effect of population aging on China's economic growth rate is unfavorable.The fifth part puts forward some practical and feasible policy recommendations based on the conclusion of the study and the specific situation of our country.Mainly including speeding up the development of population modernization,encouraging couples to have two children,setting up a free labor market,developing the elderly market,establishing a sound pension system and so on.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,the development trend of China's population aging is irreversible and it will have a serious aging phenomenon in the near future.It is expected that in 2050 before and after the population aging rate will reach 24%.Secondly,the aging population will make a substantial decline in labor supply,it is expected that in 2050 China's labor participation rate is about 67%,down about ten percentage points from now.Thirdly,population aging will lead to the reduction of the consumption of Chinese residents and the change of consumption structure.Fourthly,under the comprehensive function,the aging of the population will weaken China's economic growth.Innovations of this article are mainly the grey system theory is introduced to our country labor participation rate in the study,and predict China's labor participation rate;Revealing how the economic growth in China will be effected under the impact of population aging.Besides,On the basis of the conclusions of this paper,combined with China's specific national conditions,this paper puts forward some practical and feasible policy recommendations.Because of my limited ability,there must be many deficiencies in the research.For example,in the selection of parameters,not all the indicators of the impact of the economy are listed;Besides,there may be mutual influence between economic growth and population aging.