Export Potential Of Silk Road Economic Belt And Its Determinants

The "One Belt and One Road" strategy was put forward by China in 2013 and the strategy of "Silk Road Economic Belt" is an important part of it,which reflects China's development ideas of further opening up in the future.It is the basis for the implementation of the strategy to further develop the economic and trade relations between China and the countries along the economic belt.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the trade potential and its influencing factors between China and the countries along with the silk-road economic belt.In this paper,we will study the potential and efficiency of the export from China to the countries along the road by applying the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model,and analyze the institutional factors that lead to the inefficiency of trade,after which policy recommendations are given to promote the construction and development of the Silk Road economic belt.On the basis of elaborating the background of the study and the research ideas,this paper firstly summarizes the development of trade between China and the countries,thus providing some reference for future research.Then,this study analyzes the trade competitiveness and complementarity between China and the countries along the Silk Road,which shows that there are more trade opportunities from the perspective of qualitative analysis.Finally,this paper constructs the analysis model to explore the influencing factors of export efficiency,export potential and trade inefficiency,and calculates the value of trade potential to be realized from the perspective of quantitative analysis.The results show that the trade between China and the countries along the Silk Road has grown rapidly.What's more,the total bilateral trade,imports and exports have maintained a stable proportion in China's trade with the world.Bilateral trade presents a higher and more stable trade complementarity in the case of China export while the countries along the Silk Road import,providing more possibilities for expanding China's export.Furthermore,the regression results of the model indicate that the determinants of trade potential are GDP per capita,population,geographical distance,common border,and whether the importing country is a landlocked country.Studies of inefficiencies in trade have shown that four factors,such as effective regional trade agreements,excellent infrastructure,higher trade freedoms and higher degrees of currency freedom,can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies and promote export growth.Finally,trade efficiency of the export from China to the countries along the Silk Road is 0.5594,which implies a great opportunity to expand export.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward four strategies to promote China's export:striving to develop the domestic economy and enhance the capacity to export;actively guiding or participating in regional economic and trade cooperation,building a new pattern of foreign trade;cooperating with the countries along the Silk Road to perfect the infrastructure;strengthening intergovernmental communication and promoting the development of free trade along the Silk Road.