Analysis Of The Influence Of Ticket Price Adjustment On Intercity Railway Passenger Transport Market

ABSTRACT:With the rapid development of urban agglomeration urbanization in China,inter-city residents' work,life and cultural entertainment communications become more and more closely,so intercity railway with large capacity,fast access,convenient,and low energy consumption and low emission,has become a main travel mode between cities.From the operation practice of some intercity railways in China's relatively developed areas,the ticket price of intercity railway is still at a low level compared with other inter-city passenger travel modes.The thesis studies the influence of ticket price adjustment on intercity railway passenger transport market with the opportunity of high-speed rail EMU Passenger Fare Policy Reform.This study takes intercity railway as the study object.Based on the full analysis of existing intercity railway ticket price level and the basic characteristics of intercity railway passenger in China,this paper research the influence of the ticket price adjustment for intercity railway passenger transport market,using utility theory and sensitivity analysis method,then gives Shanghai-Hangzhou Intercity Railway as an example to research and analysis.The main work of the thesis includes the following four content:(1)Analyzed the ticket price and the basic characteristics of the passenger flow of the intercity railway in China.This paper select Beijing to Tianjin,Guangzhou to Zhuhai,Shanghai to Hangzhou and Shanghai to Nanjing intercity rail lines,and analyses the passenger flow density,travel purpose,space distribution and time distribution characteristics,then focus on the ticket price level of intercity railway compared with highway passenger transport mode.The results show that although the ticket price of intercity railway is slightly higher than the highway bus,but the intercity railway has a higher speed fare ratio.(2)The influencing factors of intercity passenger transport mode choice are analyzed and quantified.Selection of intercity passenger services from the point of view of passengers,according to passenger service attributes,the impact on the various factors analysis,the economic costs caused by the key factor analysis of the ticket priace adjustment,and using analytic hierarchy process to analyze the weight of various factors,and different travel purpose are considered differences of weight coefficient.(3)Intercity railway market competitiveness model is established,using utility theory to measure the passenger service properties of intercity travel mainly competitive way,according to the various factors influence the choice of intercity passenger mode and weight,and establish intercity railway market competitiveness model based on Logit,and the parameter value method is explained in detail.(4)Take the Shanghai-Hangzhou Intercity Railway as an example to analyze the influence of the ticket price adjustment of passenger transport market,Shanghai-Hangzhou passenger transport total market share is calculated,as well as the travel purpose and distance segments market share.Then,anlyse the sensitivity of Shanghai-Hangzhou intercity passenger market to ticket price adjustment with sensitivity analysis methods.In the current ticket price level of intercity railway,if the prices were increased by 20%or decreased by 10%,its market share will both change less than 3%;If the prices were increased by 30%or 50%,its market share will decline about 5%or 15%;according to the market segments of travel purpose,same price adjustment greatly influence on the intercity commuting trip market;according to the market segments of travel distance,same price adjustment has less infulence on the long distance passenger transport markett.Finally,according to the impact analysis,this paper summarizes the relevant policy recommendations of intercity railway price adjustment.