| Economic level enhances unceasingly in our country,the pace of urbanization has been accelerated,so very urgent need to use construction land,this is serious increased land for urban constructio n and ecological protections not coordinate between the opposite sexes.How to guarantee the sustainable development of land and resources at the same time meet the needs of economic development,is a important problem for each city faces.In order to solve this problem,a better use of land and resources,the study of its mechanism and trend is particularly important.In this paper,using RS and GIS integration technology,selection of Hunnan district in the year of 2000,2010 and 2015,three phase of the remote sensing images,using ArcGIS,ENVI,IDRISI and other software analysis,the transfer matrix of land use pattern change in the study area,and based on the evolution law of the land use pattern,short-term forecasting of regional land use pattern,according to the laws of the evolution and short-term prediction results to develop a scientific and reasonable land use planning in order to adapt to the area of land and resources and coordinated development of economy.Concrete is divided into the following four parts:(1)To obtain the three periods of Hunnan district in 2000 and 2010,and 2015 TM and OLI remote sensing image,image preprocessing,the use of remote sensing software for supervised classification,is divided into three land use types: urban land use,agricultural land,ecological land and get the three periods of muddy south area three spatial distribution present situation.(2)Using IDRISI TerrSet cross-tab in the 18.1 software module to generate 2000,2010 and 2015,the land use status quo map overlay analysis,the transfer matrix of land use area,the number and area of statistical calculation of land use dynamic index.The results show that Hunnan district the area of construction land is increasing,the area of agricultural land is declining,ecological land area is late prophase fundamental appear to reduce phenomenon.(3)Looking for land use change factors and the influence of limiting factors:slope,elevation,has built up area,road,planning factors,basic farmland protection areas,ecological protection areas.Using IDRISI TerrSet 18.1 software of MCE module created three types of land use suitability images,and superposition to generate a set of transformation of land use suitability image set.(4)Finally using CA-Markov model,the input area of transfer matrix of land use and land use change suitability atlas,to simulate the Hunnan dist rict land use pattern in 2015,and compared 2015 simulation diagram of land use and interpretation of the 2015 land use map,Kappa index inspection results.Finally be Kappa index was 0.7688.Shows that the simulation of land use structure in 2015 figure similar to the figure of present land use situation in 2015 degree is high,the high precision of the model,the effect is good.Through Kappa index after testing the simulation precision,on the basis of 2015 images,by 2010 to 2015,the area of transfer matrix of land use and land use change suitability atlas,to predict the Hunnan district distribution of land use in 2020,2020 land use pattern forecast figure.Studies have shown that Hunnan district in the past 15 years the overall trend of land use pattern is in reducing agricultural land and ecological land,construction land is increasing;Land use change from slow to fast,especially the speed after 2010.Using CA-Markov model to Hunnan district in the next five years or 2020 years of land use pattern to forecast are: Used in the construction of the land area will still continue to increase,the area of agricultural land will have substantially reduced,ecological land area is a downward trend overall changes but not by much.Along with the development of the time,and the contradiction between agricultural land,construction land will become more prominent,and therefore must be reasonable use of land,control the scale of the development of the city,scientific planning and urban development. |
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