Study On Industrial Manufactured Goods Trade Potential Between Chinese And The Five Central Asian Countries Under The Belt And Road Policy Background

After the birth of "One Belt And One Road " strategy,with a strong reaction in the world scope,the country's expectations are high.Five central Asian countries are the core strategic areas of "area" strategy,which is our country land connection of the continent and also the important object of the opening western China.This article viewed from our country and the five central Asian countries the manufactured goods bilateral trade present situation,study the potential trade in manufactured goods and the five central Asian countries in our country.First is the index method,the results of the analysis shows that our country and the five central Asian countries trade in manufactured goods have a good trade influence,covering export competitiveness than five central Asian countries also manufactured goods,but trade complementarities are not optimistic.Then,on the basis of the inheritance and gravity model,joined the importer and exporter,railway transport capacity of population,Shanghai cooperation organization and other variables will expand this model,has carried on the empirical analysis and collect data,then the actual data in regression model calculation theory result comparing with the actual results to measure the trade potential,the result shows that China and the five central Asian countries trade in manufactured goods in the trade development stage,has a certain development space.Finally,according to the analysis result,we are supposed to promote the trade development of China's manufactured goods and the five central Asian countries.