The Agricultural Products' Trade Potential Research Of China And The Five Central Asian Countries

Central Asia area is in the center of Asia-Europe continent,having been an important transporting connection of Silk Way since ancient times,it's the only way that our country communicates with the western world.And China also has historical trading business with the five Central Asia countries.Chairman Xi Jinping proposed the strategic conception of developing “Silk Way Business Area” together in 2013 during his visit to Central Asia,so as to deepen the trading business between China and the five Central Asia countries.In the conception,Central Asia area is clearly defined as the core area of “Silk Way Business Area”.Proposing of the “Silk Way Business Area” strategy will offer wider developing space for five Central Asia countries,China will also be enhancing the trading business with the five countries.Meanwhile,the trading business of agricultural products from both sides also enjoys vast developing space.The article started introducing the agricultural products trading business situation between China and five Central Asia countries from three aspects :Trading Scale,Trading Market Structure and Products Structure.And made special analysis towards the agricultural products trading business situations between China and all the other countries one by one.From the trading scale point of view,the total business amount between China and five Central Asia countries has been increasing,but it's still tiny compared to the Chinese total agricultural products trading amount.Also this trading business of agricultural products between China and Central Asia countries has been in a condition of chronic trade deficit.If we see from market structure,Kazakhstan is the biggest importer of Chinese agricultural products and Uzbekistan is the biggest exporter to China in agriculture products.Business scale of agricultural trading between China and these two countries take 80% share of total business scale between China and the five countries.And from the products structure point of view,the products structure of such business is lack of diversity.China mainly exports vegetables,fruits,meat and tea products to Central Asia,and mainly import textile fiber products from Central Asia.To further analyze the situation of agricultural trading business between China and five Central Asia countries,the article adopted Revealed Comparative advantage index,trading combination and trading complementarities index to carry on the quantitative analysis the situation of agricultural trading business between China and five Central Asia countries.Besides,the article also chose the trading amount between China and the Countries of the year 2001-2015,together with the relative variables to construct the expended gravity model.Executed the regression calculation to the data by STATA 13.0 and have measured the agricultural products trading potential between the countries.As the conclusion,China and Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan have the reproduced potential,China and Tajikistan have the exploited potential,and China has vast potential with Uzbekstan.In the end,the article proposed some ideas to promote a better trading business development between China and five Central Asia countries.