Research On The Trade Potential Between China And The Five Central Asian Countries Under The Background Of The Belt And Road

The five central Asian countries refers to Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The five central Asian countries have superior geographical position and abundant energy resources,therefore,although their scale of economy and trade is comparatively small,the important strategic value cannot be ignored.The five central Asian countries have a close relationship with China.In the western han dynasty,China and the central Asian countries jointly create the brilliance of the silk road.The Soviet Union was disintegrated in 1991 and then China established diplomatic relations with the five Asian countries timely.Good political relations,unique geographical advantages,common security needs and economic complementary and many other factors promoted the rapid trade development between China and the five central Asian countries.However,in recent years,the trade development environment between China and the five central Asian countries has faced many changes,such as the promoting of the “the Belt and Road”,the economy in China entering into China's New Normal,terrorism hitting the central Asia and more intense global competition for resources.These changes have both positive and negative factors.So facing the new changes,it is necessary to analyze the trade development space between China and the five central Asian countries.Based on above,this paper explores the trade potential of China and the five Central Asian countries.Firstly,this paper analyze the economic situation and foreign trade status in the five central Asian countries from the two aspects of size and structure respectively.Then,this paper analyzes the trade situation of China and the five central Asian countries including the trade scale,structure,the important position in the strategy of "the Belt and Road" of the five central Asian countries as well as the opportunities and challenges in the development of trade in the future.On the basis of qualitative analysis,this paper carried on the empirical analysis of trade potential of China and the five central Asian countries.This paper using the modified gravity model take the export volume and total volume of import and export as dependent variable respectively.Apart from the traditional independent variables: GDP,distance between the two countries,the paper adds some new independent variables: population of trade both sides,the absolute value of GDP per capita,real effective exchange rate of RMB,whether there is a common border and whether it is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.And the data used panel data for 1999-2015.Through the regression analysis and potential calculation of gradual selection,the data of trade potential are obtained.Data shows that there is a large trade potential between China and the five central Asian countries.In addition,this paper analyzes the trends of specific trade potentials in different countries.Based on this,this paper in the last chapter gives some reasonable policy recommendations from the country,industry and enterprise three levels to dig the trade potential of China and the five central Asian countries.