Evaluation Of Total Coal Consumption Control And Environmental Impact In Henan's Electricity Sector

With rapid development of economy and improvement of people's living standards,electricity demand is also increasing.The environmental pollution caused by energy consumption is becoming increasingly serious.The total coal consumption was 237.20 Mt of Henan in 2015.As the largest consumer of coal industry in Henan,thermal power generation's coal consumption was 107.77 Mt,which accounted for 45.43% of the total coal consumption.At the same time,the emissions of CO₂,SO2,NOX and TSP accounted for 42.03%,21.96%,39.47% and 13.98% of total emissions.Power industry caused by coal consumption and environmental impact problems has become increasingly apparent.Therefore,it is necessary to study the coal consumption and pollutant emission reduction potential in the future.This study used the LEAP platform to build the energy consumption and environmental emissions model of Henan's power sector.And then the energy consumption,CO₂ emission,coal consumption and air pollutant emissions from 2015 to 2030 were predicted under five scenarios: baseline scenario,new energy scenario,energy efficiency improvement scenario,natural gas alternative scenario and total coal control scenario.The results show that:?1?The energy consumption in Henan's electricity sector is growing rapidly from 2015 to 2030.In 2020,the total energy consumption will reach 92-102 Mtce,and it will increase to 109-133 Mtce in 2030,1.32-1.61 times more than 2015;?2?The emissions of CO₂ increase to 234-266 MtCO₂ e in 2020,245-336 MtCO₂ e in 2030.In the total coal control scenario,the carbon emission will reach its peak in 2025.?3?In 2020,the total coal consumption in Henan's electricity sector was forecasted to be achieved 118-138 Mt,and it will increase to 118-170 Mt in 2030.In the total coal control scenario,the will reach its peak in 2025,and the peak is 122 Mt.In the three different total coal consumption control measures,to improve energy efficiency is better than others.?4?Due to Implementation of ultra-low emission transformation policy,the pollutant emissions in Henan's electricity sector declined sharply from 2015 to 2017.In 2020,The emissions of SO2,NOX and TSP was forecasted to be achieved 46.5-54.3 kt,66.5-77.5 kt and 6.6-7.8 kt in Henan's electricity sector.Ultra-low emissions is of great significance to reduce emissions of air pollutants.?5?With the increase of unit size and technical level,the per unit of electricity's cost showing a downward trend,but the trend of pollutant emission reduction costs is opppsite.The ultra-low emissions transformation should priority take into account the small units' s transform.