Astudy On China's Regional Business Cycle Synchronization And Influencing Factors

Regional business cycle synchronization and influencing factors are important areas in the study of regional economics.For China,the study is of great significance to formulate regional policies to narrow regional disparities and promote regional coordinated development.Based on this,selecting gross regional product data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China(except Tibet Autonomous)for the period of the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2016,this paper uses Census X12 method to conduct seasonal adjustment,HP filter method to decompose gross regional product into trend component and cycle component and calculates Pearson correlation coefficients between every two regions to investigate China's regional economic cycle synchronization.Then this paper uses Fisher conversion method to calculate the overall correlation coefficient to examine the degree of synchronization of China's regional business cycle.On the basis of these,this paper tests the impact of differences of local fiscal policies,differences of central fiscal policies,bilateral trade,trade openness,industrial structure differences and gravity and similar factors on regional business cycle synchronization in China.This paper is divided into the following five parts:The first part is the introduction,which mainly introduces the background and significance of this paper,summarizes the relevant literatures systematically on regional business cycle,synchronization and influencing factors,and then introduces the research direction and methods.The second part is the measurement and analysis of China's regional business cycle,which includes the measure method of regional business cycle,the selection of sample data,the calculation of measurement index and the analysis of regional business cycle fluctuation.The third part is the measurement and analysis of the degree of China's regional business cycle synchronization.Firstly,we select the measurement method of regional business cycle synchronization,and then measure the degree of synchronization of regional and China's business cycle.The fourth part is to use linear regression analysis to test the influencing factors of China's regional business cycle synchronization,including the determination of influencing factors,the selection of indicators,the establishment of empirical model,data and estimation results analysis.The fifth part is the conclusion and the policy enlightenment,mainly including the conclusion,the policy enlightenment,the prospect and the insufficiency.