The Effect Evaluation Of The Deduction Policy

Today,the most critical problem facing the world economy is the long period of weak growth and the New Mediocre.Learning from history,the long term development of the world should depend on innovation and the advancement of technology.Therefore,assessing the impact of science and technology policy precisely will useful and constructive for the revise of the science and technology policy.This thesis is focus on the effectiveness of R&D expenditure deduction policy.And we use a simple-to-implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of policy,which is a new idea in the study.By setting up a counterfactual analysis framework,we simulate a counterfactual path.Then comparing with the real path,we can obtain the results of R&D deduction policy.This thesis used 18 industry of China's high technology,and the data from 1995 to 2011.Set R&D expenditure as the direct element that affected by the deduction policy,and the S&T expenditure without R&D expenditure,technology import spending,technology purchase spending as the elements which are not affected by the policy directly.Employing the method of panel data estimation,we then obtain the counterfactual path.Furthermore,using the patent equation,which is developed from the Cobb-Douglas production function,and the R&D stock without policy that we estimate,we get the number of patents of each industry.There are 8 chapters in this thesis.Chapter 1 is the introduction,focus on the background and the purpose of this paper.Chapter 2 is a review,including some important research at home and abroad.Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 are the brief introduction of the deduction policy and the research framework respectively.From Chapter 5 to Chapter 7 are positive research,which obtain the main conclusion.And the last chapter is for the inclusion.The results show that by implementing the R&D deduction policy,the R&D expenditure of non-state-owned enterprises of high-tech industry increase by 3.07 times which is higher than the estimated data 2.06 times.And the average number of patent applications increased 7.98 which is much higher than the estimated number 3.51times.These results illustrate that China's R&D expenditure deduction policy plays a great role in the development of science and technology.