| The global economic crisis that broke out in 2008 made international trade fall to freezing point,global trade exports fell by 12%in the same year.After a brief recovery in 2010,international trade appeared a downward trend again:2011-2015,respectively,growth of 5.5%,2.5%,3%,2.5%,2.8%.Since the outbreak of the economic crisis,many kinds of the economic policies have been adopted by countries around the world,unfortunately,they achieved little,and the world economic growth rate is still low.According to the World Bank,global GDP grew by only 2.63%in 2016.From the angle of international political environment,the international political environment has shown an increasingly complex and unstable trend in the past two years.In 2016,the British passed the "off the European" referendum and announced that UK will withdraw from the EU,which implied the European integration process suffered a great setback.In the same year,the United States elected President Trump said publicly that USA will withdraw from "Transpacific Partnership Agreement(TPP)"and will adopt more trade protection policies to protect the domestic industries after he take the office.As to China,China's past international division of labor model has been unsustainable.With the disappearance of demographic dividends and the depletion of resources,China has lost the original advantages in international trade gradually.What's more.The Chinese community is facing a crisis of "middle income trap" now.In a word,China's economic development has been into the "new normal" In response to the global weak demand and the challenges of complication of the world political environment,Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward "The Belt and Road"strategy and "the structural reform of supply side" guidelines for China's future development.Guangxi has benefited from the deepening of the cooperation between China and ASEAN(CAFTA),and the economy has gained considerable growth.Since the official launch of CAFTA in 2015,bilateral trade between Guangxi and ASEAN increased from US $ 6.53 billion to US $ 29.01 billion,accounting for 56%of Guangxi's total foreign trade.According to the "The Belt and Road" strategy,Guangxi is the hub links the "Silk Road Economic Zone" and "Maritime Silk Road",is the bridgehead of the strategy.In addition,industrial transferring from the eastern region of China also bring great opportunities to Guangxi.At the same time,"the structural reform of supply side" policy has raised new requirements on China's trade development.So,Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade development shows which trend now?Is its trade structure reasonable?Is it in line with requirements of "the structural reform of supply side"policy?The study on these issues has important practical significance in maintaining the steady development of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade.In this context,this paper will take Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade structure as the main object of study.Firstly,we will overview the basic situation of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade by reviewing the correlative theory and literature and make a statistical analysis on Guangxi-ASEAN trade structure.On the basis of above study,we will makes an empirical analysis by using RCA index,Grubel-Lloyd index to study the similarity and competitiveness in Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade then analyze the situation of Guangxi in the division of labor of CAFTA.At the same time,the paper constructs the trade gravity model to explore the situation of utilizing foreign capital in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015.Finally,according to the results of the 3 analytical methods,the author will draw the conclusions and make corresponding suggestions base on the"structural reform of supply side". |
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