Research On The China's Import Trade Under The Background Of Supply-side Structural Reform

As the country's important material basis,food is not only related to people's livelihood,but also closely linked to national security.In order to ensure the guarantee of China's grain supply,the government has issued a number of policy directives to stabilize and promote grain production and ensure food supply.Since2004,China's grain production has experienced a rare “twelve consecutive increase”,but while food production has increased continuously,China's grain imports and inventories have also continuously increased,showing “three increases in volume”and increasing grain consumption in China.Faster than the growth in production,the increase in the gap between the supply and demand of food needs to find more food imports to make up for it.Imports are an important means to supplement the food gap in China.To ensure food security,we must protect and ensure the safety of imports.Food is an important material,and excessive dependence on imports may lead to the inability to meet domestic food demand when there is insufficient supply and embargo risks in the world grain market.,which in turn threatens China's food security.This paper comprehensively uses the theories of classical trade theory,trade protection theory,supply-side structural reform theory,and structural reform theory on the agricultural supply side.The four grain varieties of rice,wheat,corn,and soybean are the research subjects,first of all,the grain of China.The status quo of imports will be combed and analyzed to find out the current problems in China's grain import end.Secondly,under the guidance of structural reforms on the supply side,China's food production in the next ten years will be forecast-ed.At the same time,relevant statistical data will be used to estimate China's food consumption from 1996 to 2016,and statistical analysis,regression analysis and the Grey will be used on this basis.Predicting China's Grain Import Trend.It is known from the forecast data that in the future China's wheat and rice production will be relatively stable,and will gradually increase the production ofhigh-quality wheat and rice.In the future,China's corn production will be reduced to increase and then the output will remain stable.China's soybean production will gradually increase.In the future,China's grain wheat will grow at a significant rate mainly for feed grain and industrial grain,rations will decline,loss of seed grain and food will be relatively stable,future consumption of corn will increase rapidly,soybean consumption will rise slightly,and consumption of wheat and rice will increase.More stable.In the forecast of future food gaps in China,it is found that the gap in rice is relatively stable.The gap is mainly due to insufficient supply of high-quality rice.The wheat gap mainly comes from the absence of dedicated wheat,and the increase in corn gap is more obvious.From the forecast of wheat,rice,corn and soybean gaps in China,we speculate that in the future,China's wheat and rice imports will be relatively stable,and the number will not be large,The quantity is not large,accounts for our country wheat,the rice yield ratio does not exceed 5%.It is fully in line with the new food security strategy for grain rations.The rapid increase in demand for corn in the future will lead to a rapid increase in China's corn imports in the future.However,due to the high corn inventories in China,corn imports will not be too obvious in recent years.Despite the marked increase in corn imports,people's demand for oil and fat products will continue to have huge pressure on China's soybean supply in the future.Soybean imports will continue to increase,but the growth rate will be relatively slow.This article proposes relevant suggestions on the risks of China's grain imports to further ensure China's food security: In response to the current problems of excessive grain imports,single species,concentrated import markets,and inconsistent grain prices at home and abroad,we propose to reduce non-essential grain imports;To guide the optimization of grain import structure;stabilize the sources of grain imports,promote import diversification;increase international food discourse rights,increase the influence of international food prices;and further improve the food security early warning mechanism and other countermeasures.