Demand Projection Of Lithium Resource And Its Demand & Supply Analysis In China

Lithium resources as China’s important emerging industry and strategic resources,widely used in batteries,greases,glass ceramics,medicine,nuclear industry and other fields.With the China economic transformation,industrial structure adjustment and the rapid development of new energy vehicles,the demand for lithium resources rises year by year.In 2015,China’s consumption of lithium carbonate accounted for 37.16% of the world,becoming the world’s largest consumer of lithium carbonate.But by the natural conditions,the technical level of utilization and so on,China’s lithium resources supply is not adequate to the demand.China’s lithium resources have a high degree of external dependence,the development process of hard lithium resources is slow,the self-sufficiency rate is low and the source is complex.Therefore,it has a great practical significance to analyze the future situation of supply and demand of lithium resources in China.One is the prediction of basic research support for the demand of China’s lithium resources;two is forecast to provide a reference for the sustainable development of China’s lithium resources industry and similar mineral resources development needs;three is for the Chinese geological survey,mining administration,lithium resource planning,new energy policy makers to provide decision-making reference.Supported by “Dynamic tracking of mineral resources protection in China” and based on the analysis of global lithium resources,production and consumption situation and trade pattern,combined with the basic law of consumption and economic development of China’s lithium resources,this paper carried out a forecast of the demand of China’s lithium resources before 2030,the future of China’s lithium resources supply capacity are analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)In China,the most important consumer of lithium resources is the battery,lubricants,glass ceramics,medicine.In 2015,the proportion of each sector was 51%,15%,12.8%,8.2%,accounting for 87% of the total.Based on the sector consumption characteristics of China’s lithium resources,the demand for lithium resources in China is divided into 4 sectors.Through the combined use of detailed sector consumption method and gray forecasting model method,it is predicted that the demand for China’s lithium resources(lithium carbonate)in 2020,2025,2030 years were 13.94,21.61,38.43 million tons.(2)Based on the status of China’s lithium resources,lithium production enterprises and lithium production technology breakthrough and so on,this paper analyzed the trend of China’s lithium resources market supply.In 2020,2025 and 2030,the forecast of carbonate lithium production is 11.93,19.21,30.93 million tons.China’s lithium resources in a state of short supply in the future.(3)In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources and protect the sustainable supply,China should increase exploration and development efforts for domestic lithium resources and improve the extraction process of lithium from Saline Lake brine with high-magnesium-lithium-ratio and speed up the large-scale production.It is suggested to establish the recycling system of waste lithium battery on the basis of improving the performance of power lithium battery.