Analysis Of Demand Trend Of Lithium Resources In China Based On System Dynamics

Lithium is strategic emerging industry mineral that is very important.In the past one hundred years,the consumption field has expanded from glass and ceramic industry,aluminum smelting and air treatment to lithium batteries,aerospace and atomic energy.At present,the contradiction between resource acquisition,energy consumption and environmental protection is becoming more and more prominent.As a energy metal in 21 th Century,lithium resources have attracted more and more attention.In the past few years,with the strong stimulation of the development of lithium battery industry,the consumption of lithium resources in China increased from 35.8 thousand tons in 2010 to 78.7 thousand tons in 2015(lithium carbonate equivalent)by 17%.In this case,it is significant to study the current situation of China's lithium resources supply and demand,to predict the trend of China's lithium resources demand by scientific methods,to ensure the security of China's lithium resources supply and to formulate industrial policies by the relevant departments.Starting with the current situation of lithium resources supply and demand and the theory of system dynamics,this paper analyzes the status of lithium resources,consumption history,supply history,trade status,development trend of related industries and the existing problems in China.On this basis,combined with the theory of system dynamics and the theory of resource demand forecasting,the relevant factors affecting the consumption of lithium resources in China are clarified,and a dynamic system model of the lithium resource supply and demand is built with the core of lithium resource demand.Then the model is tested by the data of related variables between 2009 and 2015.It is proved that the model can predict the lithium resource demand reasonably,and the fitting degree test proves that the error does not exceed the allowable range.Finally,sensitivity tests were carried out to show that lithium resource demand is most sensitive to GDP growth.On the basis condition,using the historical data to simulate the process of simulation and forecast the demand and supply in 2016-2025,the results show that the consumption of lithium increased from 87.4 thousand tons in 2016 to 246.1 thousand tons in 2025,the annual growth rate was 12.19%,and the supply was increased from 69.2 thousand tons in 2016 to 253.4 thousand tons in 2025.The growth rate was 15%.Lithium battery industry in China has been the highest area of lithium resource consumption,and has increased significantly from 45 thousand tons in 2016 to 138 thousand tons in 2025.The annual compound growth rate has reached 11.85%,and the consumption ratio is increased from 53% to 70%.Combined with the forecast results and the problems existing in the industrial development,some industrial development proposals are put forward.