Research On Investment Risk Evaluation Of China’s Pension Real Estate Projects

Pension real estate is in the residential development on the basis of an increase of health,leisure,medical and nursing services,such as supporting a new type of real estate model.Under the background of the aging of our country,the development of the old-age real estate has been paid more and more attention in china.As a special mode of real estate development,pension real estate has a certain nature of public welfare,it not only needs to get investment benefit,but also has social benefit.Investment income mainly comes from the rental,sales and supporting pension services,which is able to solve the increasingly serious problem of pension.Pension real estate in our country has just started,the lack of investment in the development of pension real estate projects on the experience,plus the pension real estate projects with large investment,long payback period and complex operations management etc.,in which developers invest in the development of pension real estate projects will face certain risks.From the point of view of the development of the real estate investment risk analysis,can effectively reduce the risk,reduce losses,and then improve the success rate of development projects.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the investment risk of the pension real estate projects.The article first at home and abroad on the pension real estate theory research and practice,introduces the concept and characteristics of endowment real estate,summarizes the development status of China’s old-age real estate,and the risk management theory are described.Secondly,from the six aspects of policy,economy,location,market,development and construction,management and operation to find out the risk factors in the development process of the pension real estate projects.According to the existence of a variety of risk factors of the pension real estate investment risk list,and the formation of risk index system.Thirdly,according to the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the riskfactors of the pension real estate projects,and find the key risk factors according to the weight.Fuzzy matter-element evaluation model is constructed to determine the investment risk level of the pension real estate projects.The analysis results show that policies to support the lack of systematic,long payback period of investment,financing channels for a single,natural environment,pension service level is not high and the lack of management capacity is a key risk factor endowment real estate project investment.Finally,put forward the corresponding suggestions for the key risk factors for pension real estate projects,to provide reference and guidance for China’s pension real estate projects risk management,reduce the risk of pension real estate investment and development projects,and promote the healthy development of the pension real estate in china.