Research On Endowment Insurance Policy Audits Simulation Based On CGE Model

Currently,public policy audit research is still in its infancy,the audit of public policy research also focused on content, functions, objectives theoretical research. Some scholars believe that the policy audit should include that states out the executed policy deficiencies and made recommendations for the upcoming or has not yet developed policies. For this feature of the policy audit, we use the policy simulation method to audit policy, in order to achieve the functions of policy audit that given evaluate and recommendations for the have been performed or the non-implementation policy. Selected the CGE model as the policy simulation method,which is mainly due to the adjustment of public policy is often prone to a chain reaction for public life that can easily spread to the relevant fields, CGE model can be good at simulating after one field of policy changed affect the entire national economy.In order to improve the efficiency of constructing CGE models, and the need for policy audit, the paper built a policy audit prototype simulation system based on CGE model, designed the whole structure of the prototype system and its functions, and designed the data layer of policy audit prototype system,design the various table fields and field types,a relationship between tables. Achieved the CGE model separation of the data, can greatly improve the scalability and operability of the model.Based on the CGE model theory and existing domestic pension insurance policies, constructed pension insurance CGE model, and use the model doing static analysis and dynamic analysis for pension insurance policies, static analysis is mainly quantitative analysis for improving and reducing the contribution rate impact on GDP, sector output, labor demand, import and export, consumption, etc.. Dynamic analysis includes: (1) In the case of the current policy does not change, predicted GDP, income and expenditure, the accumulated balance of the pension fund and other pension funds in next 40 years. (2)simulation the recommendations for policy ,after that raising the retirement the change of GDP,pension funds, income and expenses in the next 40 years. Through the above analysis results that raise the contribution rate will reduce the disposable income of residents, not conducive to the growth of GDP; aging peak at dawn, appropriate raise the retirement age in favor of the sustainable of pension.