Application Of Gray System Theory In Real Estate Project Risk Management

Real estate project risk is a complex system, subject to many aspects of the impact. Since 2010, real estate market into the sixth round of market regulation, with rising house prices, the real estate market regulation and control efforts continue to increase. February 2013, the State Council once again issued a "new country five", for the residential real estate market regulation again upgrade, the real estate project risk is growing, real estate developers before the project investment, in-depth analysis and evaluation of the risk of the project , It is increasingly necessary to provide theoretical support for successful decision-making.The article first takes the real estate development project as the research object, summarizes the domestic and foreign research on the real estate project risk assessment research on the basis of the results,combined with work experience and knowledge, the use of classification risk identification from the natural risk, policy changes risk, Factor risk,technology update risk, project construction risk, social risk and organizational management risk of seven aspects identified nearly 30 kinds of real estate project investment risk. And on this basis, the risk evaluation index system of real estate development project is constructed.Based on the analysis of the current situation of real estate investment risk in China, this paper puts forward five trends in the development of real estate project risk in China.Secondly, on the basis of the retrospective analysis of the risk assessment method,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the risk factors of the real estate project risk evaluation index system are determined, and the risk comprehensive evaluation model of the residential real estate development project is established.Finally, through the actual development of the real estate project of acounty in Dezhou City, Shandong Province, the risk evaluation index system and the risk comprehensive evaluation model are analyzed empirically to prove the rationality and reliability of the risk evaluation index system and the risk comprehensive evaluation model.