Study On The Early Warning Of Urban And Rural Construction Land Replacement

Currently,land resources of China are facing two major contradictions in effective use and rational allocation.Firstly,it's the contradiction between farmland protection and the constructive occupation of farmland.Secondly,it's the contradiction between the shortage of urban construction land and the idle of rural construction land.The replacement of urban and rural construction land is very important for tapping the potential of rural construction land and distributing the land resources.However,there are still some problems such as farmland protection,distribution of income and rights protection occurring in the implementation of replacement in each target units.Therefore,how to establish an early warning system to keep watch on the risk problems and develop measures to protect the effective implementation of construction land replacement is the urgent problem that needed to be solved.Based on the research of relevant documents and books,investigation of the implementation of urban and rural construction land replacement and taking early warning theory and risk management theory as the breakthrough point,this thesis established a preliminary frame for the early warning of urban and rural construction land replacement.This thesis included the following contents:firstly,identifying the risk problems that occurred in urban and rural construction land replacement;secondly,establishing the warning system of urban and rural construction land replacement according to the identification and current state;thirdly,using punitive variable weight to count the warning value of urban and rural construction land replacement;fourthly,identifying the warning interval according to the normal distribution of the "3?" principle;fifthly,using GM(1.1)gray model to calculate the development trend of urban and rural construction land replacement;finally examining the early warning frame by taking the linkage between the increase in land used for urban construction and the decrease in land used for rural construction in Xin Yi city as an example and proposing targeted measures to improve urban and rural construction land replacement and make sure it will work effectively.The main content and findings of this thesis are as follows:(1)based on the background,significant and relevant findings both home and abroad of urban and rural construction land replacement,the author put forward the content,technology road-map and method of this thesis;sorted out the relevant theories such as differential rent theory,land development rights and tradable emission permit theory,early warning theory and risk management theory and their guidance to this thesis.(2)The risks of replacing the land were discriminated.According to the analysis of operating mechanism of urban and rural construction land replacement,the author found out that the risk problems were about farmland protection,economic change and industrial structural readjustment,urban-rural integration and the rights and interests of farmers.(3)A warning index system from 5 levels and 18 indexes was established.The 5 levels were the transactions of urban and rural construction land replacement,the use degree and profit of farmland,economic and industrial structural changes,urbanization development and urban-rural integration and the protection of farmer rights.(4)The author has also designed the early warning system of urban and rural construction land replacement which followed the thinking as "sorting out the potential risks——choosing warning indexes——counting warning degree——dividing warning interval——discriminating warning situation——predicting warning degree".(5)Finally,the linkage between the increase in land used for urban construction and the decrease in land used for rural construction in Xin Yi city was taken as an example for empirical study.And the key elements that influenced the warning of land replacement were found out.The results are as follows:? the empirical study showed that the main restriction factors of warning included index X5,X6 which indicated the protection of farmland,index X9,Xio which indicated economic and industrial structural changes,index X2,which indicated urban-rural integration and index X18 which meant farmer rights.?The warning signal light of urban and rural construction land replacement in Xin Yi raised from purple warning in 2007-2008 to red warning in 2012 and 2013.Even though it descended to yellow warning in 2014,the predict result for 2015-2017 was still red warning which meant the warning degree presented an upward trend.Meanwhile,the change of the index about replacement acreage and warning situation couldn't update timely.Based on the empirical study and the analysis of early warning frame,this thesis proposed the targeted measures for farmland protection,economic change and industrial structural adjustment,urban-rural integration and farmer rights.The thesis aimed at giving suggestions for improving the supervision quality of land resources and the efficiency of urban and rural construction land replacement as well as promoting the rational use of land resources.