Urban Land Is A Market Early Warning System Model And Its Application Research

With the setting-up and perfection of the socialist market economy system of our country,the land market regarded as the important part of the economy system.Its key position in economic life and the function of optimizing land resource allocation is becoming more obvious.Presently,the economy of our country is developing in the high speed,and the urbanization is advancing rapidly as well.The demand of construction land increases greatly and the gap of land supply and demand become more and more prominent.Especially in recent years,there is a overheating of the economy in some area.The investment in the fixed assets and the real estate price (Especially housing) are growing particularly rapidly,which attracts a great attention of the government and the whole society.Indeed the government has taken the land market as a "brake" to control the economy and tried to regulate and improve the operation of the land market.However,in order to make the most effective use of the land resource and restrain each kind of land speculation,the government needs to establish early warning system of the land market Which could help to develop a scientific and support for the rational policy-making.Therefore,the academic study on setting-up the early warning system model of the urban land market is greatly helpful for theory and practice of land management.The object of study in this thesis is the urban land primary market.The thesis includes 3 parts:PartⅠintroduces the related basic theories on the early warning of urban land market,including explanations on the main concepts on the early warning of urban land market and the methodological concern on suitable approach chosen through the comparison of four economical early warning methods commonly used.PartⅡbuilds up the early warning system model of urban land primary market.By the general simulated prosperity method,which is carried out by 6steps,i.e.:1 )setting up the general warning goal;2 ) choosing the index systems;3 ) determining the weighs by AHP;4) standardizing the data to form the comprehensive and individual index;5) using 3σmethod to divide the warning degree with 5 levels--overheating,light overheating,regular,cold,rather cold;6 )Finally,building up the warning signal systems.PartⅢ,the empirical study is accomplished.Mainly on the basis of analyzing the datum from the first quarter of 2004 to the last quarter of 2007,the early warning system of primary housing land market of Beijing is set up to offer.At last,the thesis put forward some correlative suggestions for the government to make the correlative policies. The main innovations of this thesis appear in the following three aspects:1 ) establishing the index system of the early warning system of Beijing primary housing land market.2) using the statistical standardization method to standardize data,i.e. standardizing data to revolve 1000 points,which makes the result is more obvious in the index- interpreting.3 ) dividing the early warning block with 3σmethod that has a stronger objectivity and the authenticity than the empirical analysis.