The Prediction Analysis And Empirical Study Of Urban-rural Construction Land In Land Use Planning

Along with the rapid development of social economy, the scale of Chinese urban-rural construction land expands quickly, the level of China average is greatly exceeding the level of world average, it has brought about strong impact on the basic national policy of cultivated land protection. In order to ensure national food security and social stability, the scale of urban-rural construction land is regarded as a restricting index to conduct in the epicycle planning; combined with the index decomposition of the scale of urban-rural construction land in counties and urban districts of Ningbo, studying on the prediction analysis of urban-rural construction land becomes an urgent affairs.Urban-rural construction land is most closely related to human social-economic activities in the types of land, and it assumes most of the economic output. The prediction requires meeting the normal demand of construction land for social-economic development, but also preventing the blind expansion of construction land, so it need some theoretical basis and methodology to support. Starting from the theoretical analysis of urban-rural construction land prediction, this paper briefly introduces the related notion,theoretical basis and fundamental principle; considering the influential factors of urban-rural construction land is numerous and complex, the article preliminarily analyzes the influential factors of supply and demand, combined with correlational analysis method, then it builds an influential factors index system of urban-rural construction land; in order to improve the scientificalness and rationality of the prediction, different mathematical models such as BP neural network model, multiple linear regression model and gray system theory are applied in this paper, and contrastive prediction analysis in terms of supply,demand and development law itself is done, the article attempts to set up a theory and method system of urban-rural construction land which is suitable in land use planning.Based on the1996-2008 land use data and related social-economic statistical indicators of Yinzhou district, the paper carries out an empirical study about prediction, and structures the influential factors index system of urban-rural construction land, moreover, the article predicts the scale of urban-rural construction land of Yinzhou district under the condition of land resource constraints and using BP neural network model, multiple linear regression model and gray system theory respectively. The result of study show that: althought the prediction under the condition of land resource constraints is simple and convenient, but it has a certain human subjectivity, and the outcome can be used to refer; the precision and validity of prediction which uses BP neural network model and multiple linear regression model is better than which uses gray system theory, and gray system theory is unsuitable for long-term prediction. Finally, the paper identifies the growth of urban-rural construction land in high,medium and low proposals of Yinzhou district, and the article presented the recommended program, as well as related policy and suggestion for reasonable control of urban-rural construction land.