The Impact Of "Two-child Policy" On Labor Supply

The paper estimates the trend of total fertility rate and incremental newly-born population by total fertility rate model via census data of 2010 and related data of China Statistical Yearbook. Then we use population forecast model to forecast total working age population under the two kinds of policy. Finally we forecast and analyze labor supply and the change of the internal structure under the two kinds of policy combining with the labor participation rate we calculate, so as to reveal the influence of Two-child policy on China's labor supply in 2017-2050.The results show that: two-child policy would not change the negative growth trend of labor supply in the future. But the policy could retard labor supply decline and help to slow down the decline of young labor force proportion, increase the proportion of young and middle aged labor force. The two-child policy would have some positive effects on maintain the labor supply scale and optimize the structure of labor force.According to the results, we put forward the following suggestions: Government should protect the rights of women's reproductive rights and work to make it not to have trouble back at home by formulate and improve fertility services; And perfect nursery system, decrease the cost of childcare, improve people's fertility intentions,with greater play to the role of the two-child policy. At the same time, the research conclusion shows that the two-child policy to alleviate labor supply drop only, so in order to ensure the future labor supply scale, we suggest that, on the basis of two-child policy, government should increase human capital investment to improve labor quality, improve the statutory retirement age gradually to develop the elderly human capital, and further ease policy on birth control.