The Research On The Scale And Structure Of China’s Labor Supply In The Future: 2011~2050

It was worth of studying the short-term surplus and long-term shortage of the labor supply of China. On basis of the constructed population model and estimation of future labor force participation trend, the thesis concludes the each indicator of labor force supply in future, analyzes the evolvement of labor force supply scale and then studies the structure of labor supply from the perspective of age structure and gender.Firstly, Lee-Carter model was utilized to make annual population mortality rate projections classified by age and gender in China to make out the reasonable estimated values of fertility rate and sex ratio of the new-born. In addition, under considerations of the current ‘two-child-policy’, the impacts on the scale and structure of labor supply resulting from TFR index’s variations are also discussed in the thesis. Secondly, the future trend of labor participation rate by means of the Blass Life Table was studied to estimate domestic labor participation rate in future. In combination of those indicators as mentioned above the future annual labor supply by gender and age will be concluded.The studies have concluded the labor supply has been deteriorating on the whole in quantities and will mainly occur in two stages: the slow declining period from 2011~2026 and accelerating decreasing period from 2027 to 2050; In terms of structure of labor force, the aging problem is emerging in population and labor supply, of which the male workers account for 51%~62% of the total. With the policy framework of ‘two-child-policy’, every 0.1 increase of TFR value will be followed by 17.26 million increase of Chinese labor supply scale in 2050, which is beneficial to maintaining labor supply scale and optimizing structures of population and labor supply. Meanwhile, the control over rapid growth of population shall be equally paid attention to.The top-level design to coordinate policies in areas of industrial sectors, employment, education and population shall be in place due to short-term surplus a long- term shortage of labor supply as well as the trend of ageing in labor supply, so as to better off future labor supply and promote the social economy balanced and prosperous.