Risk Evaluation Of Overseas Cross-border High-speed Railway Project Besed On ISM Method And Matter Element Model

Along with the strategy of" The Belt and Road" being proposed and implemented gradually, more and more countries strengthen economic and cultural cooperation with China.Moreover, the proposed strategy provides a historic opportunity for China's high-speed railway development. However, because of the characteristics of the high-speed rail project and many influencing factors of the host country,China's high-speed railway "going out" face great complexity and uncertainty. How to effectively identify risk factors,make the structure and mechanism of the risk factors clear and assess the risk of above project accurately become an important problem for the risk research of high-speed railway "going out", also is the keystone of this paper.Firstly, A number of high-speed rail projects in foreign countries are selected and the material of causes of China's frustrated overseas high-speed railway project are collected and summarized .Then, the risk factors system of overseas high-speed railway project is constrcted by combining the specific case.Secondly, considering the interaction between risk factors, an improved granular computing method is developed to determine the weight of risk which is calculated according to important of each attribute in quotient space. It consists of the hierarchical structure is obtained according to the similarity between the samples. After that,the matter-element model is introduced to construct the dynamic composite matter-element model according to the duration of high-speed railway project and the characteristics of the host countries. Thirdly, this paper has drawn the risk factor system and find the direct, source and the process risk of the Singapore-Malaysia high-speed railway project by introducing the interpretative structural model(ISM) to divide the investment risk factor system into layers.Then, the improved granular computing method is proposed to determine the weight of risk,which is more reasonable by considering the interaction of factors. Finally, risk countermeasures and advice are made on the basis of the evaluation results which obtained by using the dynamic composite matter-element model to the analysis of the Singapore-Malaysia high-speed railway project.