The Simulation Of The Karamay City Land Use Change Based On Markov And CLUE-S Model

Karamay,as the first city in China to be born of oil and become prosperous because of oil,its oil and gas development and oil and gas industry have a very important position in china.With the growth of population in Karamay,the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization,the rational use of land and the prediction of land use change is an important link of social and economic development planning.In this paper,Markov model and CLUE-S model are used to simulate the land use change in Karamay in 2025.Based on the data of land use change in in 2010 and 2015,the land use simulation map was obtained by selecting the driving factors for the land use change in Karamay.The simulation results of Markov model and CLUE-S model are used to simulate the land use change in small and medium area.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Reclassification of 2010 and 2015 at the end of the land change data,divided into six categories,according to the special selection of driving factors,using SPSS and GIS software,and the correlation analysis of all types of driving factors,driving factors selected by calculating the ROC area of the right,the weeds were more than 0.7 other factors outside,to meet the requirements.(2)Using the grid pixel size of land use status in 2015 for the 2010 land use status map 100m×100m simulation,using logistics regression model,the driving factors,using Markov and CLUE-S model simulation data of 2015,and in 2015 compared with the actual data,using Kappa coefficient test,accuracy of 0.816,simulation and prediction good results.(3)The land use situation of Karamay city in 2025 was simulated by using the data of land use at the end of the year of 2015,and the change of the two different states was obtained by setting the parameters.Are in accordance with the status quo of simulated natural growth scenario,construction land continued to increase,decrease of farmland,woodland and grassland area decreased sharply,resulting in a decline in the quality of ecological environment and oil project construction used land abandonment is serious,is not conducive to long-term sustainable development of Karamay city.Ecological environment protection scenarios,ensuring economic development and ecological environment protection,construction land area of relatively slow growth,reduce the occupation of cultivated land,cultivated land area remains unchanged,woodland and grassland,area increased.Under different scenarios,land use patterns have significant spatial differences.