Research On Risk Decisions For Corporate Carbon Resources Planning

As the largest developing country,China has actively pursued a low-carbon economy and assumed the task of carbon reduction as a big country,and has set up seven pilot projects on carbon emissions trading.The establishment of the emission trading market and the implementation of the mandatory carbon reduction program have brought new challenges to the operation and management of enterprises,especially to the traditional high energy consumption and high emission enterprises.Under C&T conditions,carbon quotas have become an important resource for the production of enterprises.Decision makers consider not only traditional resource for production,but also environmental resources to satisfy its emission needs due to the production/service.There are multiple risks associated with the production plan and carbon resource allocation decision.The enterprises are faceing more dynamic and uncertain problems because of the uncertainty of the carbon emissions quotas price,the feasibility and maturity of the green selfpurification projects.In addition,different types of decision makers for decision-making attitude and preferences also affect the decision-making.Therefore,this paper will deeply describe the behavioral characteristics and logic of the risk decision-making process in the process of carbon resource decision-making of manufacturing enterprises,and establish and develop a discrete event simulation model with representative and robustness.As the enterprise carbon resource planning decision associated with multiple risk factors and is multi-cycle,so the static analysis is not suitable for such research.In this study,we take the manufacturing enterprises as the main research object,design a representative decisionmaking logic,and specify the impact of mutiple risks on carbon resource planning decisions.Then,using with the method of computer simulation,we construct a representative and robust carbon resource planning decision simulation model of enterprises with Arena.In this study,a large number of simulation experiments were carried out to measure the influence of management decision-making on different system performance in risk environment.We perform multivariate statistical analysis of the output sample data for system performance.By adjusting the input conditions,we observe the influence of different risk factors and related parameters on the system behavior,in order to obtain the effective suggestions and countermeasures in the carbon configuration process.