Research On Optimal Scale And Performance Of Power Investment

Power investment is essential for the development of energy industry.Since the reform and opening,with the development of national economy and power consumption,the power investment scale is also expanding constantly.However,for the reason of diminishing marginal product,there exists an optimal scale for power investment.As a result,to study the optimal scale of China's power investment,and to evaluate the investment performance of different regions are important for scientific planning of power investment.Firstly,to analyze the long-term trend of power consumption and economic,the power consumption and GDP time series are divided into smooth parts and cycle parts by using HP filtering method,on the basis of which the impulse response function can be taken into analysis the relationships between them.The method reveals a causal relationship from power consumption to economic growth,and points out the importance of power investment.Based on the newest theory of fiscal expenditure,the optimal scale regression model and marginal output of power investment are proposed,in which the calculation process for variable is also got.The model has simple function,clear meaning and convenient operation.Then the optimal scale of China's power investment,the marginal output of power investment and grid investment can be calculated through the data from 1996 to 2013.The empirical results show that: the optimal scale of China's power investment is 3.5%,which is higher than the actual one.Moreover,the marginal output of power investment is 1.23,while the grid investment is 1.35.Thus,the scale and structure of China's power investment needs to be further optimized.Secondly,according to the significance,principles and requirements of power investment performance evaluation,a performance evaluation index system of power investment is proposed,which includes 4 first-level indicators and 12 second-level indicators.In this index system,the development characteristics of power industry are fully covered from social,economic and environment,which contribute to the evaluation of power investment performance.Lastly,Entropy weight TOPSIS method,along with the performance evaluation index system,are applied to evaluate the power investment performance of China's 7 geographical areas and 30 administrative regions in 2013.The evaluation result reveals different regions' advantages and weaknesses of power industry,which reflects the imbalance of 4 aspects including infrastructure,technical economy,pollution control and clean energy development.The method is easy to understand,easy to use,and the weight of each evaluation object does not depend on the subjective judgment while they can be described in a simple mathematical form,which makes it scientific and objective.