Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change In Guiyang City

As an integral part of the human production and living,Land resource plays an important role to human survival and development.Land use change is the key field of global environmental change,Its formation is the result of a result of the combined action of multiple factors such as natural and social economic factors,no matter on time scale or on spatial scale.In recent years,with the advance of science and technology,the study of land use becomes more and more deeply.By building a model,to simulate the land use pattern by building models is a new research direction.It analyzes the land use present situation in different periods based on the data of land use data.Than build relevant model with the aid of GIS and RS technology to simulate and predict land use pattern,in that way we can r understand the process of land use change,its rule and tendency better.This paper takes Guiyang as the study area based on the land use data of 2000,2005 and 2010 of Guiyang.Transition matrix,land use change geo-spectrum characters,and barycenter migration model are used to analysis the change and evolvement rule of land use pattern in the past 10 years from 2000 to 2010 in Guiyang city.Then Logistic regression model is used to analysis the major driving factors of land use change and land use suitability as the following CA conversion rulesof CA-Markov model,based on the factors which respectively selected from nature,social and economic,and accessibility.On this basis,CA-Markov can predicts the natural and with the government participation development pattern of land use pattern in the study area in 2020,whose result are checked and analyzed at the end of the thesis.In that way,we can provided a scientific evidence to land use planning management in order to make land use more rational.The results showed that:(1)The major land covers are cultivated and forest land.Land use changes significantly during the past 10 years in Guiyang,cultivated land decrease by 44 878.62 ha,forest land,construction land,forest land increase by 21 001.29ha?20 079.41ha?3700.30 ha respectively.Cultivated land is the main source of other lands.The gravity centers of all land use type migration direction of cultivated land and construction land are opposite.The city spreads to the south.(2)The major characteristics of land use change were swaps between the geo-spectrum unit of cultivated land construction land and forest land with a total area of 47068.38 ha.Overall the geo-spectrum of land use change in Guiyang was mainly shaped by the prophase type(20 606.13ha)and anaphase type(22 695.84ha),partially by the continuous type(3 766.14ha),with a tiny influence of repeated type.(3)The effect of different kinds of factors which can drive land use change do not exist isolation,but closely linked.The change ofland use in Guiyang city is mainly influenced by natural factors.Overall the land use change driving factors show a trend of: natural factors > social economic factors >proximity factors.(4)Choosing200m×200m?300m×300m?500m×500m?600m×600m?800m×800m?1000m×1000m,a total of 6 kinds simulation scale,the ROC value shows that the best scale spatial pattern is 300×300m in the study area,which is used as the foundation for the next step of data progress.(5)Suitability map of land use can obtain after deformation of Logistic regression equation,which is used to correct the transition rules of CA-Markov,in that way,it can eliminate the influence of artificial factors and enhance the accuracy of prediction.(6)Land use is predicted under two scenarios: natural development scenario and the sustainable scenario.Results showed that under natural development pattern,cultivated land is largely occupied and construction land in Guiyang will still maintain a rapid growth trend.According this pattern of development,the target of protecting cultivated land will be difficult to achieve which will result in a serious challenge to the ecological environment.Under the sustainable scenario,due to the impact of policies the land use structure will tend to be stable and the growth of construction land will be slow.In that case,we can conclude that implementation of the policy have certain effect on the sustainable development of land resources.The conclusion can providereference basis for the government's rational management of land resource and adjusting planning in time.