Study On The Mechanism Of Coal Price Fluctuation Based On The Dynamic And Static Perspective And The Countermeasures Of Coal Enterprises In China

As we all know,China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer.However,the coal based energy structure and extensive energy development,brought about by the haze and waste of energy resources and other issues continue to impact the environmental warning line,the supply side structural reforms without delay.The first is the energy consumption revolution,to gradually from extensive,inefficient to save,efficient;second is the energy production revolution,gradually from black,high carbon,green,low carbon.Energy production is not only the best stock,the promotion of clean and efficient development and utilization of coal as a foothold in energy transformation and development priorities.To grasp the double control of total energy consumption and intensity,comprehensive use of economic,legal and administrative means,focusing on industrial,construction,transportation and other key areas to promote energy-saving emission reduction,through the elimination of backward production capacity,accelerate the upgrading of traditional industries and develop new energy,improve energy efficiency,promote the formation of focus on energy-saving lifestyle and social fashion.Above all,in the context of energy transformation,combined with China's national conditions and the development of the status quo,in-depth study of the mechanism of coal price fluctuations,it is very urgent.Therefore,based on the price of coal as the center,from the analysis of the fluctuation characteristics and the influence factors of coal price,in-depth understanding of the mechanism of coal price fluctuation,and then for our coal enterprises to formulate corresponding measures.First of all,the characteristics of coal price fluctuation are discussed,and the seasonal,stochastic,trend and cyclical characteristics of coal price fluctuation are discussed and analyzed.The results show that there are obvious seasonal characteristics of coal price fluctuation in china.Seasonal factors are W type trend,with a clear "Shuangfeng Single Valley" characteristics.Coal price fluctuation in China has periodicity.The fluctuation of coal price is divided into four cycles,including 3 complete cycles and 1 incomplete cycle.There is an asymmetry in the price fluctuation of coal price,which shows that the good news has a greater impact on the coal price volatility than the bad news.Secondly,the paper analyzes the influencing factors of coal price.The influence factors of coal price fluctuation are selected,and the interpretative structural model(ISM model)is established.The results show that the long-term equilibrium relationship between coal supply and demand is the most important factor affecting coal price fluctuation.Thirdly,the path analysis of the impact of coal prices.By means of multiple regression analysis and path analysis,this paper studies the factors which have significant influence on the coal price and the correlation between these factors and the direct and indirect effects.The results show that the international price of coal,coal imports,oil prices,the development of the national economy,coal production,coal stocks,coal consumption,the seven factor is the impact on the price of coal is a significant factor.The absolute value of the simple correlation coefficient of the coal price and the influencing factors are as follows: the quantity of coal production,the price of oil,the national economy,the consumption of coal,the price of coal,and the quantity of coal.Then the dynamic analysis of the influencing factors of coal price.Theoretical study on the system dynamics method,established the system dynamics model of coal price fluctuation,based on the analysis of the causal relationship between the influence factors of coal price fluctuation,constructs the dynamic relationship between the factors of system function model,through simulation of the existing policy of the development trend of running Vensim PLE.The results show that the simulation shows that the future of China's coal price showed decreased and then increased trend,the change trend of China coal supply and consumption are similar,showing a rising trend,the gap between supply and demand is small,basically in a state of equilibrium.By changing the model parameters,the coal price is analyzed,and the results of the model show different trends and characteristics under different parameter values.Finally,the Countermeasures of coal enterprises are discussed.According to the analysis of previous empirical summary of coal price fluctuation mechanism,understanding the relationship between the influence factors of coal price,to explore the influence factors how to influence the coal price fluctuation,change and forecast of coal price fluctuation trend.Coal enterprises make different strategies respectively from the coal enterprises to develop a reasonable production plan,promote the upgrading of the level of industrial technology,the coal enterprise marketing innovation,strengthen internal management,the coal enterprises to accelerate the restructuring of coal enterprises and the gradual transformation of the five aspects of coal enterprises with the specific measures of coal enterprises,the coal enterprises can produce some economic benefits in different periods.