Safety Evaluation Of Cobalt Resources In China

As a new strategic mineral,cobalt is becoming more and more important with the development of the times.It plays an important role in the new industries,such as battery material,super alloy,magnetic material and so on.It is listed as the important "strategic material" in many countries.As the world's largest cobalt consuming country,China is poor in cobalt resources.Unbalance supply and demand have lead to high levels of foreign dependence,and the supply of cobalt resources has a huge potential for security.Under this background,systematically combing the historical supply and demand pattern of cobalt resources in the world and China,comprehensively predicting the future development trend,establishing the safety evaluation system of cobalt resources,analyzing the problems existing in the supply of cobalt resources in China,and seeking solutions.It has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the guarantee degree of cobalt resources and sustainable development of China.This paper sets up a global database of cobalt resources industry chain,and analyzes the data characteristics in detail.The results show that the distribution of cobalt resources in the world is highly concentrated,the production areas and the production enterprises are oligopoly,the production and smelting areas are separated,the international cobalt price is guided by the market game price,and the global cobalt consumption centers are concentrated in China,the United States,Japan and the European Union,and the consumption field is concentrated in the battery field.The demand for cobalt in the new energy automotive industry has explode and has become the main driving force for the growth of global cobalt consumption.Based on the global cobalt consumption history and consumption patterns,the demand of the global and China in 2020 is predicted by the forecast method of sector demand,and the future global supply and demand pattern and market development trend are judged.The results show that in the future,cobalt consumption in China and the world will enter a period of rapid growth,the demand for cobalt in China and the world will reach 62,600 tons and 151,200 tons respectively in 2020,which is an increase of 63% and 46% respectively from 2016.It is expected that the global demand for cobalt will last for one to two years.The international cobalt price will continue to oscillate in the short term,the supply and demand pattern will be reversed in 2020,and the cobalt price will return to rationality.Analyze the influencing factors of China's cobalt resource supply from the supply side,demand side,and intermediate links.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),establish a medium and short term safety evaluation index system.Combine the safety value calculation formula to quantitatively analyze the safety of cobalt resources in China from 2000 to 2020.The results show that the short-term safety value of China's cobalt resources is on the decline,and the safety status has changed from basic safety to more dangerous.In the future,the short-term safety value will slowly increase,but it will remain in a more dangerous state.Based on the above research,the major problems in the supply of cobalt resources in China are analyzed,and relevant strategic countermeasure proposals are proposed.