Cobalt Resources Demand Forecasting And Supply Security Analysis In China

As one of scarce mineral resources in China,cobalt is mainly used for rechargeable batteries and super alloys.The supply of cobalt resources has a bearing on the stable development of new energy automotive industry,consumer-electronics industry and high-end equipment manufacturing industry.Cobalt mineral resources are abundant in the world but scarce in China.With a strong demand for cobalt resources,China encounters a severe shortage problem.Therefore,it is essential for us to predict the demand of cobalt resources and analyze the security situation to guarantee the stable,sufficient,timely and economical supply in China.This dissertation is based on the theory of supply and demand and the theory of risk governance management.The author collects data of reserves,production,consumption,international trade,price,rate of recovery and World Governance Index from 2000 to 2016.Grey Model and the method of multi index comprehensive evaluation are used for making a short term prediction for the cobalt resources demand and analyzing its supply security in China.The results show that the demand of cobalt resources in China will be 57056 t,65446t,75071 t and 86110 t respectively from 2017 to 2020.The reason for the strong demand and the fast growth is the rapid development of new energy automotive industry and consumer-electronics products as well as the rapid increase in demand for super alloys.On the basis of the demand forecast,this dissertation selects appropriate indicators from the three aspects of resource,market and politics and introduces the pattern of quantitative classified evaluation to assess the resource risk,market risk,and political risk.The radar chart shows that the supply risk mainly includes serious shortage of China's cobalt resources,increasing degree of dependence on foreign trade,low rate of recovery,weak market power,a high import concentration and great geostrategic risk.In response to the severe gap between supply and demand,this dissertation puts forward some policy recommendations.Firstly,the government should reasonably use stockpiling and delivery system to stabilize price fluctuation,make subsidy and tax policies as well as strengthen the intergovernmental cooperation with resources countries.Secondly,enterprises had better develop the technology for recovery to improve the efficiency of recycling.Furthermore,enterprises ought to promote their layout of overseas resources through financial markets.Last but not least,making plenty of technical preparation is the contribution that universities and research institutes can make.These above recommendations will promote to make better use of the domestic and international markets and resources to safeguard the supply of cobalt resources.