ASEAN Steel Supply And Demand Situation And China’s Capacity Cooperation

As an important member of China’s "All along the way",ASEAN is also an important part of the Maritime Silk Road Strategy,located at the east of Malacca Strait,in the Pacific and Indian Ocean,Asia and Oceania "Crossroads",but also related to the South China Sea issue,its geographical position is very advantageous.The steel industry is the pillar industry of the national industrialization process,ASEAN cannot be self-sufficient in steel production capacity,need to rely on imports,and the current situation of China’s steel overcapacity is still grim,without considering the new capacity,it plans to eliminate 1-1 500 million tons of steel backward capacity from 2015-2020 five years,In the global economic growth slowed down situation,ASEAN instead of good economic situation,strong growth momentum,the future economy will remain at a rate of 5%-6% rapid growth,the demand for infrastructure is increasing,which provides a broad platform for China’s steel production capacity transfer.Based on the research on the supply and demand situation of ASEAN steel,this paper analyzes the future cooperation between ASEAN and China,through the quantitative analysis of the "S" curve and the qualitative study of a series of influencing factors,the feasibility analysis and suggestions for the future cooperation between China and ASEAN in steel capacity are given.The main body is divided into four parts: the first part of the ASEAN steel supply and demand consumption history analysis,the use of "S" shape forecasting method to the ASEAN per capita crude steel,copper consumption and GDP per capita combined,to predict the ASEAN capacity to produce,it is expected that by 2030 ASEAN’s demand for crude iron and copper is 168 million tons and 1.95 million tons respectively,Vietnam,Indonesia’s demand for crude steel grew by 1-1,5 times times,followed by a 1 time-fold increase in the Philippines.The second part is to combine China’s strategy of going out with international capacity cooperation,this paper analyzes the reasons for China’s steel industry going out,the present situation and the prospect of docking the steel capacity with ASEAN,in particular the impact of the future of ASEAN infrastructure on steel production capacity,and the dispersion of China’s steel production capacity,For the analysis of the two sides of the capacity of cooperation to pave the face of the challenges.The third part is to analyze the investment environment of ASEAN,from the current situation of ASEAN’s economic development and foreign politics,economy,and the current infrastructure of ASEAN and the relationship between China’s steel production capacity transfer,overall consideration of the security of ASEAN investment environment.Part IV discusses the advantages and disadvantages of China-ASEAN steel capacity cooperation,and analyzes the pros and cons of China and ASEAN,including the challenges of low-end capacity and steel competitiveness,local protection and so on,risks to overseas investment of steel enterprises,escalation of trade frictions between China and ASEAN,The implementation of anti-dumping and safeguard measures is unfavorable to the transfer of Chinese steel enterprises ’ capacity,and finally gives reasonable suggestions to improve the international competitiveness of Chinese steel enterprises in order to guarantee the safety of investment.