The Risk Analysis Of Coal Invested Project And Monte Carlo Simulation

Coal, as the main energy sources for China, possesses irreplaceable place in our country's energy consumption. With Chinese economy system's further reform, it seems to be more and more important to analyze and appraise the risk of coal invested project during the period of investment and management.Currently, ascertained means is generally taken to evaluate the economic benefit for Chinese coal invested project. Namely, calculating or deducing the only ascertained economic evaluation index with the help of those forecasted or estimated data, and then making out the strategic decision for coal invested project. However, the benefit of coal invested projects is practically influenced by many random factors that play an important role to the benefit and easily change, and then the only sensitive analysis is not comprehensive at all. In order to understand the changing rule of coal invested projects' economic benefit, and review the possible risk and the credibility of those economic index for coal invested projects, the comprehensive risk analysis is required. Monte Carlo analysis is a kind of very useful means to solve those questions successfully.The random numbers are selected according to variable distributing by Monte Carlo analysis, and simulating the investing process, finally several simulating results are gained by a large number of repeated calculations. Then, the statistic numbers of those simulating results are computed with the help of statistic rule, and gained the statistic character of those related economic evaluating index, consequently the benefit and risk of invested projects are clearly estimated. This paper used international experience for reference, applied Monte Carlo Simulation to the risk analysis of coal invested projects, established the useable model, and offered more valuable decision resource for rational investment of coal projects.This paper analyzed coal industry's present status and developing trend, specified the main risk resource of our country's coal industry, summarized the researching and developing situation of risk analysis in the world, widely referenced risk evaluation means and results of investing projects. A large number of data are adopted to analyze the risk resource of coal invested projects in this paper, and quantitative analyzing model is raised at the base of qualitative analysis. Combined with the practical condition of our country's coal invested projects, the example of Monte Carlo analyzing the risk of coal invested projects in china is explained and discussed in detail.The paper belongs to applicable research, whose innovation rests with: The first, the present risk theory is applied to simulate high-risk projects, combined the discounted cash flow with Monte Carlo Simulation, and using probability to evaluate the risk of coal invested projects;The second, a useful example of Monte Carlo analyzing the risk of coal invested projects is specified, similar risk analysis of invested projects can use for reference.