| Energy,as a basic industry,plays a vital role in the rapid development of China's economy.In view of the energy endowment characteristics of China's "rich coal,lean oil and less gas",coal has dominated China's primary energy consumption status for a long time.There is no denying that coal resources have made outstanding contributions to China's economic development.However,over-reliance on coal resources has also led to a sharp increase in environmental pollution in China.Especially in Beijing,Tianjin,the Pearl River Delta,the Yangtze River Delta and other China's most economically developed,densely populated areas,haze weather become more and more frequent,that not only caused serious harm for the the health and life of local residents,but also makes the road,rail,,Tourism,agriculture and other economic sectors suffered a series of negative effects,as to foreign investment in China,international tourists inbound tourism and other important obstacles,seriously affecting Beijing and other cities and the whole China's international image.The community on the haze and other ecological environment tolerance has been approaching the critical point,how to manage haze,improve the environment has become an imminent problem.Different levels of natural conditions and economic development in different regions of China have resulted in differences in tolerance to pollution and the cost of pollution control,so that the cost of overall environmental pollution can be minimized through sound energy allocation.This provides a theoretical basis for the strategy of "coal transportation and transmission".With the increasingly sophisticated UHV transmission technology and important transmission lines such as "Mengxi-Tianjin South 1000kV UHV AC power transmission lines","Yu Heng-Weifang 1000kV UHV AC power transmission lines","North-Jiangsu ± 800kV UHVDC transmission line "and so on the construction and put into operation,so that" coal transmission and transmission "strategy has realistic conditions.In this paper,the combination of forecasting method is used to predict the future energy demand in Beijing and Tianjin,and the total energy supply in Beijing and Tianjin is local and other regions,and the energy demand gap in Beijing and Tianjin is further determined.At the same time,this paper also analyzes and predicts the production capacity and demand of coal and electric energy in the"three western areas",so as to judge whether the energy output capacity of coal and electricity in the "three western" area can meet the energy demand gap in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region.On the basis of this,the dynamic CGE model was used to simulate the economic and social impact of the proportion of different structures of coal and electric energy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.The main structure and content of this paper are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction part,mainly introduces the background of this topic,combs the related research literature at home and abroad,expounds the innovation and the insufficiency of this article.Chapter 2 is the present situation of energy production,consumption and transportation in "Sanxi" area and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.By analyzing the present situation,the development prospect of "coal transportation and transmission" is judged.Chapter 3 is one of the main chapters.of the article.The influencing factors of energy transmission in the "Three West" area-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed.On this basis,the forecasting model applied in this paper is selected,and the Shapley method The ARIMA model and the GM(1.1 model combination model.The total energy demand,aggregate supply and total demand of electricity energy and total supply in the "Three West" area in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were predicted by the model respectively.The results show that the "three western" region of the current power production and delivery capacity is not enough to do all in the form of transmission to complement the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region energy demand gap.Chapter 4 is the construction process of dynamic CGE model in this paper,including the introduction of dynamic CGE theory,division of department,description of equation system,data source and parameter adjustment.Chapter 5 first analyzes the pollutant discharge in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Provinces and related pollution control policies.Then,the dynamic CGE model established in Chapter 4 is used to simulate and analyze the impacts on the economic and social impact.The results show that under the condition of supplementing the energy demand gap of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,the GDP growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region declines year by year with the decrease of the proportion of coal transportation due to the increase of transmission ratio.When the transmission proportion exceeds 50%,GDP starts to grow negatively;Fiscal revenue,resident employment and GDP trends are similar.At this moment,the discharge of pollutants such as PM2 5,CO2,SO2,etc.also showed a trend of change from increasing to decreasing with the increase of the proportion of alternative coal transportation by power transmission.Different socioeconomic goals require different ratios of power transmission to alternative coal transportation.Only from the point of view of ecological environment,the reasonable proportion of coal-to-electricity transmission and transmission structure accounts for 60%-100%of the total energy transmission.Considering the economic and social capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the reasonable proportion of coal-to-electricity transmission in the short term should be 60%-63%of the energy demand gap in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by power energy transmission,and steadily increase the transmission in the long term Proportion to 100%?According to the analysis above,the sixth chapter puts forward the suggestions of accelerating the construction of power base in the "ThreeXIs" region,increasing the power transmission and transformation of coal transportation,promoting the construction of power grid and trans-provincial power exchange market,establishing a reasonable compensation mechanism,The supplementary policy of transferring power and the policy suggestion of accelerating the adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure. |
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