Research On Political Risk Management Of China's High Speed Railway Projects In International Engineering Market

With the implementation of high-speed rail "going out" strategy in 2009,"The Belt and The Road" strategy in 2013 and "Made in China 2025" strategy in 2016,Chinese high-speed rail's going out is facing a huge opportunity.At present,China has signed cooperation letters or agreements on high-speed railway with more than 30 countries.But political risk in the international market has caused catastrophic losses to China's high-speed rail contractors.Regrettably,Chinese government and Chinese contractors did not give enough attention to political risk.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct a qualitative and quantitative research on the political risk of China's high-speed rail "going out",so that China's high-speed rail will penetrate the international market better under the premise of avoiding political risk.Based on the identification of the political risk factors of international high-speed railway project,this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of political risk of China's high-speed rail project in the international construction markert,then puts forward the method of political risk evaluation and constructs the solution system.Firstly,six political risk events of international high speed railway projects were indentified through literature review and case study,and then with the data of sixteen high speed rail projects,twenty-six kinds of political risk factors affecting the events were identified through grounded theory.Thirdly,literature review was used to construct the interpretative structural model of the political risk of the high-speed rail project and analyzed the mutual influence relationship of the factors and the political risk formation mechanism which contains the relationships between factors,events and results.On the basis of the analysis of the formation mechanism of political risk,this paper analyzed the influence of political risk of China's high-speed rail project in international engineering market.Among it,Firm's business characteristics,cultural differences,international competition,international economic stability,international policy change,corruption,party conflicts,the project desirability are eight independent nodes,the political risk is the value node,which became the basis of the fuzzy influence diagram.The frequency state of the independent nodes and the fuzzy function of the node after the point are determined by consulting with experts and data.The validity and maneuverability of the fuzzy influence diagram evaluation method are analyzed with the Xin-ma high speed railway project.Finally,prevent measures from the country,enterprises,the project levels are put forward to cut the path of the formation of political risk in the stages of the source,process and results.In this paper,the results enriched the political risk management system of the international project.The political risk evaluation and prevent system of the international high speed railway projects provided feasible and effective decision for the Chinese high-speed rail contractors to explore the overseas market.