Research On The Risk Management Of The "Go Global" Strategy Of China High-speed Railway

In recent years,with the development of economic globalization,the "Go Global"strategy has become one of the most important measures and an inexorable trend of global economy.China High-speed Railway,through the processes of importing,learning,innovation,and recreation,has thus been growing by leaps and bounds and is playing the leading role in the high-speed railway industry.Since China put forward the "Go Global" strategy in 2009,the state leaders have been constantly introducing and promoting the China High-speed Railway to foreign countries.China High-speed Railway is now one of the "National Business Cards" of China and the"Go Global" of China High-speed Railway is also the primary national strategy of China.However,the road to the success of this strategy is not plain sailing.Multiple projects failed due to various risk factors and the China High-speed Railway related companies have incurred a huge loss.Therefore,risk control research is the top priority in the implementation of the"Go Global"strategy of China High-speed Railway.Based on the"Go Global"theory,foreign investment theory and risk management theory,this article takes the complete risk management research system as the frame,combining with case study and literature review of key projects of the China High-speed Railway"Go Global"strategy,focus group interview and questionnaire survey,and uses the factor analysis method to establish the risk factor evaluation system for the"Go Global"strategy of China High-speed Railway.Then,using AHP-based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the paper carries out an empirical study on the"Moscow-Kazan" project and puts forward the train of thought and countermeasure analysis of "Go Global" strategy of China High-speed Railway.The conclusions of this paper are as follow.(1)There have been 9 China High-speed Railway"Go Global"projects since the winning of"Ankara-Istanbul"project bid(using the bid-winning or contract-signing dates),and only 1 project is now opened to traffic,1 project has signed the cooperation agreement,l project is still under survey,1 project is under construction,1 project is expected to finish by next year with huge estimated loss,and 4 projects have failed.The overall successful rate for this strategy is 11.11%,and failure rate is 55.56%.The reason is the lack of risk management research before the initiation of the project and thus shows the great importance of rigorous risk management research.(2)There are some idiosyncratic factors for the"Go Global"strategy of China High-speed Railway.First,it is highly affected by national policies;second,with large amount of investment and long investment horizon,a great amount of potential risks will be revealed during the project process;third,the China High-speed Railway projects involve a huge number of companies,institutions,and industries in both countries,making it hard to comprehend all the risks.(3)After analyzing the"Moscow-Kazan"project with the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,it is found that"political risk"topped the 2nd risk by 0.11.Similar conclusions can be drawn when analyzing the other two projects,and therefore we should pay more attention to political risk;meanwhile,financial risk,management risk,and economy risk are also too important to ignore.(4)Through case study and empirical study,though the political factor is the greatest in the course of"Go Global"of China High-speed Railway,risks perform differently in different projects,hindering project process and causing loss or failure of the project.As a result,during the initial risk management research,we must be able to analyze risk factors comprehensively while paying major attention to the key risks.We must take preventive measures to avoid the waste of national resources.