Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Government Oriented Farmland Circulation

Farmland circulation is an effective way to optimize the allocation of rural land resources,and is also the key to solve the "three rural issues".Since the third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee,the government introduced a series of policies on promoting the development of farmland circulation,the local government respond positively to the policy docking,using administrative and economic power to promote large-scale farmland circulation,the government oriented large-scale farmland circulation pattern came into being.The government oriented farmland circulation has the advantages of high speed,large scale and easy scale management.However,from the actual point of view,there are various risks in the process of government oriented farmland circulation,which affect the effectiveness of farmland circulation.Based on the investigation of rural land circulation in Shanghai city obtained by questionnaire and interview data as the foundation,from the Shanghai government oriented land circulation mode discrimination to evaluate the risk of identifying the type of land circulation policy,management,social and other aspects,and puts forward the government oriented land circulation risk prevention measures,to provide a the reference for the model characteristics and risk assessment of the Shanghai municipal government oriented farmland circulation.This study introduces the background and current situation of farmland circulation research at first,as well as the theoretical and practical significance of this research.Then,the relevant research reviews at home and abroad are reviewed to determine the content and method of the study.Based on the definition of related concepts and theoretical foundation of the selection,theoretical analysis of mode characteristics of government oriented land circulation,and through the analysis of present situation of Shanghai land circulation,the identified farmland circulation dominated by government.Then through the flow chart method and risk list method to identify the risk of Shanghai government oriented farmland circulation,identify the three categories of risk types of policy,management and society.The expert scoring method is used to evaluate and sort the identified risk results.It is concluded that the government dominated farmland circulation policy has the highest risk,the second is the comprehensive evaluation value of the operational risk and social risk.And the degree of risk policy risk is the highest,from policy support,satisfaction,validity and stability of the four dimensions of constructing a unified index system,using the TOPSIS method for the evaluation of the sustainability of policy.Overall,the sustainability score of farmland circulation policy is the highest,0.775,the average value is 0.524,which is in the second level.That is to say,the government oriented land circulation policy of Shanghai has weak sustainability.Finally,from the aspects of policy,operation and social risk,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the risk prevention of farmland circulation in Shanghai.