Study On The Precision Poverty Alleviation Effect Of Agricultural Insurance Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,the government's advocating of “precise poverty alleviation” has been receiving a wide range of response from all walks of life.At the same time,agriculture insurance developed rapidly with sustained promotion of both premium and standard.Insurance is born with capacity of protection,which further more provides connections with finance and wealth redistribution,higher level of security system for insurant by expanding initial investment and leveraging.Concerning of the large amount of poverty in rural areas,it seems to be of great help to “precise poverty alleviation” as we combine agriculture insurance with financial and credit support.For the purpose of demonstrating whether agriculture insurance can be of help to “precise poverty alleviation” or not,this paper focus on swine insurance.By using system dynamics models and VENSIM software in numerical analysis method,we prove the existence of economic vulnerability of poor culturists facing the risk of market and loss,compute the insurance of target price,swine loss and income in different situations and finally describe the significance of “insurance-credit-subsidy” pattern for extreme poor culturists.Our conclusions are as follows.First of all,in any of our risk situations,the poorer culturists can be,the more impact he will suffer.Secondly,in three of swine insurance,revenue insurance can do best to protect the ability of reproduction and decrease income gap.In other words,it is the best choice of “precise poverty alleviation”.Thirdly,although insurance can conquer a lot,there still exist dead zone in protection,which indeed require financial help.Fourthly,“insurance-credit-subsidy” pattern has tremendous effect on leverage.If it is been used properly,the total available fund of a decade can be enlarged in several tens of times.Thus,agriculture insurance can play a role in developing industry to help the poor.