| With the rapid economic development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards,China's logistics industry has entered a period of rapid development.According to the "Opinions on Further Promoting the Reduction of Logistics Cost and Increasing Efficiency to Promote the Development of the Real Economy" issued by the General Office of the State Council in July 2017,it is necessary to rely on the joint efforts of the nation and society to build a sound logistics market,maximizing the effectiveness of logistics link to economics.In fact,as an “accelerator” for economic development,the logistics industry has a very close relationship with transportation infrastructure.With improvement of transportation infrastructure and the technology,intelligence and specialization of the logistics industry,there have been many structural conflicts in the development of the logistics economy.It is only by relying continuous investment in building transportation infrastructure and increasing logistics channels that cannot solve the problems.The coordination issue must be based on existing research,and must consider the actual relationship between the logistics industry and the regional economy under the conditions of different transportation infrastructure and the development law.This is a scientific and rational formulation of the relevant logistics industry policies.Promoting economic advancement has important theoretical and practical significance.In view of this,based on economic theory,modern logistics theory,transportation infrastructure development strategy theory and threshold theory,this article studies the influence trends between logistics industry and regional economy under different traffic infrastructure conditions.First of all,this article analyzes relationship between China's logistics industry and regional economy,and focuses on the matching degree between local logistics industry and regional economy under different economic levels in China.Secondly,combining the relevant research and policies of the existing logistics economy,we seek for variables in the logistics industry that affect the regional economy,and classify the indicators in terms of their overall size,infrastructure and development trends,and use principal component analysis methods to calculate corresponding variance contribution rate and unit eigenvectors of each category There are used to obtain the principal component regression equation,and the main component factors in each category are determined as reference variable indicators for the subsequent threshold panel regression model.Finally,the variables obtained from principal component analysis are used as explanatory variables and threshold variables,and the economic impact factors of the research on complex social issues are used as control variables to unify the data caliber,calculate the data index,and then use the railway transportation infrastructure and highway transportation infrastructure as the threshold respectively.The threshold panel regression model coefficients and likelihood ratio function diagrams of explanatory variables are obtained,and the results are analyzed by data to provide measurement support for the nonlinear relationship between logistics industry and regional economy.Based on the existing research on logistics economy and transportation infrastructure related theories,this paper finds that there is a nonlinear relationship between logistics industry and regional economy.After the principal component analysis of the main factors affecting the logistics industry,a logistics economic panel regression model with traffic infrastructure as the threshold variable was established,and through the corresponding data analysis,the following main conclusions were obtained:(1)When the railway transportation infrastructure is a threshold variable,The relationship between logistics industry and regional economy presents a transformation from strong to weak.When the value of railway transportation infrastructure variable is less than the first threshold,railway transportation has a significant role in promoting the logistics industry.At this time,the logistics industry has a positive impact on the development of the regional economy;when the value of the traffic infrastructure variable is between the first threshold and the second threshold,the demand for railway traffic weakened,and the impact of logistics economics became smaller.When the value of railway transportation infrastructure was greater than the second threshold,due to the improvement of living standards,the timeliness of logistics demand for greater convenience has led to a further weakening of the demand for railway traffic and a further reduction in the impact of the logistics economy.(2)Under the condition that the highway transportation infrastructure is a threshold variable,the relationship between the logistics industry and the regional economy presents an inverted U-shape.When the value of the road traffic infrastructure variable is less than the first threshold,the highway is in the initial construction period with little impact on the logistics economy;when the value and the second threshold,the improvement of the highway construction system and the decrease of the cost,people's dependence on road transport increases.At this time,the logistics industry has a significant positive effect on the regional economy;when the value of the threshold for road traffic infrastructure exceeds the second threshold,the emergence of multiple modes of transportation and road congestion.The problem has caused a slight weakening of the demand for road traffic.At this time,the logistics industry has played a less important role in promoting the regional economy.(3)The relationship between logistics industry and regional economy has an important relationship with the development level of local transportation infrastructure.In areas with better transportation infrastructure,the logistics industry and the local economic development promote each other to achieve a win-win situation.Conversely,in areas with poor traffic conditions,the cooperation between the logistics industry and the regional economy is hindered more,and even has adverse effects.In this regard,the local government should adjust measures to local conditions and formulate sound logistics and economic policies. |
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