Research On Evaluation Of Policy Effect Of "Coal To Gas Or Electricity"

China's coal-based energy structure and the proportion of loose coal are too high,which is an important cause of frequent air pollution.In particular,in the northern part of the country,large quantities of loose coal are used for heating in winter,which is more likely to cause persistent heavy haze.In order to cope with air pollution,the "coal to gas or electricity" policies have been implemented in various parts of the country,especially in the north.All regions are "suitable for electricity,electricity,and natural gas for natural gas".Although the "forbidden coal zone" has gradually expanded from the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region to some coal-exposed coal-free zones such as Shandong and Shanxi,many places continue to bum loose coal for heating.Whether the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity"policy can promote energy transformation and green development,the effect of the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy on air quality,energy environment and green development has become a hot topic of social concern.The implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy is different,and the implementation effect is also different.Since the "coal to gas or electricity" policy has been put forward,various news reports have been published to evaluate its advantages and disadvantages and implementation effects.The evaluation of the effect of "coal to gas or electricity" policy has important practical significance for further promoting policy implementation and controlling the burning of loose coal and promoting the green development of energy.First of all,from three aspects to analyze the transmission mechanism of the implementation affect of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy,that is,the impact of policy implementation on air quality,energy consumption and living standards of residents.First,the impact of policy implementation on air quality,the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy is due to severe haze in many areas of winter,air quality deterioration,large areas of visibility is too low,not only affect people's travel.Moreover,it also causes great harm to people's health.In winter,especially in the northern part of China,the consumption of loose coal in winter is also an important cause of severe haze weather.Second,the impact of policy implementation on energy consumption,China's coal-based energy structure is difficult to change for a long period of time.With the continuous development of China's economy,energy consumption will continue to increase.Natural gas and electricity are clean energy,and coal-fired heating is changed to natural gas for heating or electricity.Heating can reduce the amount of pollutants in the air,and it can also save coal consumption.Third,the impact of policy implementation on residents' living standards,the main goal of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy is to replace coal-fired heating with natural gas or electricity,and this will inevitably affect the amount of electricity used and electricity consumption,thus affecting residents' energy consumption behavior..Secondly,the DID(Double Difference)model of the mainstream policy effect evaluation method was used to evaluate the effect of the "coal to gas or electricity"policy,and the panel data of 41 cities from Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shandong and Shanxi were selected from 2003 to 2015.The intensity of "coal to gas or electricity"policy is measured by the number of news reports,and the DID model and PSM-DID model are used to analyze the air quality changes before and after the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy area and the unimplemented policy area,energy consumption and the impact on residents' living standards,in order to assess the effect of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy.The results show that the "coal to gas or electricity" policy is not significant in reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions,but the results of reducing industrial smoke(powder)dust emissions are significant,indicating that the implementation of the policy has only been reduced to some extent.The emission of industrial smoke(powder)dust;the impact of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy on energy consumption is not significant,may be due to the reduction of coal consumption in the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy,However,the consumption of natural gas and electricity has increased substantially;the implementation of the policy has a significant impact on the number of people using artificial gas and natural gas in the implementation area,and the implementation of the policy on the total gas supply of artificial gas and natural gas and the electricity consumption of residents The impact is not significant,indicating that the number of people using gas to heat up during the implementation of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy has increased,and the impact on electricity consumption is not significant.It is more common to use natural gas heating than the electric heating application in the process of "coal to gas or electricity".Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of the "coal to gas or electricity" policy,the "coal to gas or electricity" policy in the implementation process,should take the subsidy policy as the starting point,break through the policy implementation dilemma,give full play to the original intention of the policy,promote the steady and healthy development of the "coal to gas or electricity"policy.Therefore,the green development proposals that promote the smooth implementation of the policy are mainly:"Coal to gas or electricity" policy should be steadily carried out under the government's implementation and guidance,planned approval,approval and implementation,and the corresponding ladder price policy should be formulated.In order to solve the problem of "gas shortage";for the problem of late heating in winter,we should abandon the "one-size-fits-all" "coal reform" policy to ensure heating;in the process of implementing policies,local governments often face rigid pressure problems.Implement policies in accordance with the objective laws.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following:First,this paper not only uses the DID model to evaluate the effect of "coal to gas or electricity" policy,but also adds the PSM-DID model to analyze the DID results of the policy,overcoming the systematic differences in the existing literature for the DID model due to the changing trend.Second,the paper will study the sample control in several prefecture-level cities in the "coal reform" provinces.The total sample data covers large sample data of 10 variables in 41 provincial-level cities,which is a sample of provinces in the common literature.The data is more detailed,which makes the paper discuss the policy effect of "coal to gas or electricity" in a more detailed scope.Third,the number of news reports introduced in the paper is used as an important data indicator for policy evaluation as an important evaluation factor of policy effects.