A Study On The Impact Of Financial Development On The Peak Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions

In recent years,the global ecological environment has been seriously damaged,resulting in frequent extreme weather,economic development has been seriously hindered and a series of other issues worldwide,of which global warming is a more prominent problem.Over-emission of carbon dioxide is an important cause of global warming.In order to solve this problem,countries around the world cooperate actively to explore ways of reducing carbon dioxide emissions,and have reached a consensus on reducing carbon dioxide emissions,and signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.China actively participates in the work of reducing carbon dioxide emissions,takes responsibility,and puts forward that China’s carbon emissions should reach a peak around 2030.In order to achieve this goal as soon as possible,all provinces,regions and industries in China are exploring their own ways to achieve peak carbon emissions.As a special economic activity,finance derives many new financial products such as green credit,green bond and so on in the process of reducing carbon emissions,which contribute greatly to the reduction of carbon emissions in China and the world.Henan Province has a large population and is also a major agricultural province in China.Henan Province,known as the kitchen of the Chinese people,plays a very important role in food supply and food security in China.Low-carbon agricultural production can not only reduce agricultural carbon emissions,but also ensure national food security.At the same time,Henan’s financial departments are also actively participating in the work of financial services.Financial services are more related to the support of agricultural industry in rural areas.At present,it is of new significance to explore the policy role of financial departments in the level of agricultural carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the financial policy impact of Henan Province on promoting agricultural carbon emissions to the peak,whether for promoting provincial development or agricultural development.This paper mainly studies the impact of rural finance on the peak agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province.By studying the prediction of agricultural carbon emission peak and financial impact in Henan Province,we can provide emission reduction methods for agricultural development in Henan Province and make a scientific evaluation of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Henan Province,as well as provide reference for other provinces in China.The research ideas of this paper are divided into three parts.Firstly,several carbon sources are selected from planting and animal husbandry,to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of Henan Province from 2000 to 2017 and the agricultural carbon emissions of 18 prefecture-level cities and 10 provincial-directly-administered counties in Henan Province in 2017,and to analyze the changing characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province from time and space.Secondly,based on the calculation of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province,the explanatory variables of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province from 2000 to 2017 are added to the explanatory variables of rural financial scale,rural financial efficiency,rural population,agricultural economic level,agricultural structure and agricultural mechanization level.The STIRPAT model is constructed,and the regression analysis is carried out by using stata13 statistical software to explore the specific impact of rural finance(rural financial scale and rural financial efficiency)on agricultural carbon emissions.Finally,using scenario analysis method,three scenarios are set up: normal scenario,medium-speed and low-carbon scenario and high-speed and low-carbon scenario,and then parameters of different variables are obtained.Combined with regression equation,the peak year and peak amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province in 2018-2050 are calculated.The main results are as follows.The improvement of rural financial level will promote the peak of agricultural carbon emissions.First,under the baseline scenario,agricultural carbon emissions will peak around 2040,with a peak of 1417.1 million tons.Second,under the medium-speed and low-carbon scenario,agricultural carbon emissions will peak around 2033,with a peak of 124.975 million tons.Third,under the high-speed and low-carbon scenario,the peak year was further advanced to 2023,with a peak of 117.308 million tons.In addition,a special analysis is made on the impact of rural financial efficiency on agricultural carbon emissions.The study finds that the improvement of rural financial efficiency can promote the early peak of agricultural carbon emissions and help reduce agricultural carbon emissions in different periods.Under the three scenarios,the addition of rural financial efficiency promoted the peak year to reach 5 years earlier,4 years earlier and 6 years earlier respectively,and the peak amount also decreased by 97.35 million tons,65.44 t and 29.96 million tons respectively.Generally speaking,the development of rural finance is conducive to reducing agricultural carbon emissions,and the development of rural finance mainly depends on the support of relevant national financial policies.Therefore,the formulation of relevant policies for the development of rural finance helps to promote the peak of agricultural carbon emissions.According to this,this paper proposes that Henan Province should adjust and optimize the agricultural structure according to the actual situation,promote green manure cultivation,develop green recycling agriculture according to local conditions,improve the technical level of agricultural machinery and increase the technical input of animal husbandry,and improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources.With the help of the existing rural revitalization strategy,financial inclusiveness and financial poverty alleviation will bring more financial services to the countryside and continuously improve the level of rural financial development.And we should expand the scale of rural finance,adjust the credit structure within the rural financial efficiency,increase low-carbon agricultural credit,improve the financial service level of low-carbon agriculture,and promote the agricultural carbon emissions of Henan Province to reach the peak as soon as possible.